Friday, November 03, 2023

Thoughts when $1 SGD is $3.50 MYR

 


I was fortunate this week that I was invited to take a short half-day trip to JB with a pal who is Malaysian Chinese, and someone who earns in SGD and spends partly in MYR. This trip is useful to me because I'm thinking of running more errands in JB, but I do not wish to hang around for too long as all I need to do is collect rent, have a meal, and buy medication for both of me and my mum before heading back to SG.

Right now the exchange rate is ridiculous, but I don't really benefit from this. For most Singaporeans, you can afford to arrogantly go into JB and convert your SG to MYR and live like a king ( or at least arrogantly get a full body massage). For folks like me, I collect rent in MYR, spend whatever is reasonable there, and then convert the remaining amounts to SGD to buy dividend stocks back home.

 So if you think about it, I actually get less SGD over time and even have to deal with traffic jams which would definitely get worse this school holidays. 

Today I just want to talk about some random topics to earn back the lay-person readership who has read about 14 hardcore articles I've put up over the last two weeks.

a) Are Singaporeans arrogant in JB?

I was really privileged to meet my friend's aunt, a feisty woman who is in her 80s, and had breakfast with her. She ripped into me immediately and said that Singaporeans are arrogant to which I agreed.  If her money is x3.5 times the strength of mine, she'll have trouble being humble too.

I had a bowl of my favourite curry mee for $8 MYR - probably very expensive for locals but it's actually less than $3 SGD. 

But the strong Singapore dollar is no longer something we only experienced in Malaysia. In Istanbul, I was able to spend $138 SGD at Salt Bae's Nus-ret restaurant on a decent steak and a lamb chop. In Osaka, I fed my family of five in a small family udon shop for $35. 

( Do you know that GunPLA is half-price in Japan? )

But 1M65's recent video makes sense. Singaporeans should refrain from saying that everything is cheap when they travel because locals don't like it. We also did not really earn it, our Central Bank has been loading on gold for a number of months and Gold has been on the rise based on the momentum algorithms I run on a weekly basis. 

b) Malaysians who work in Singapore benefit from a strong SGD too

When we think about Malaysian locals' experience with arrogance, we must not forget that a lot of Malaysians, now Chinese and Bumiputra, perform their skilled trades in Singapore for x3.5 their home currency as well. 

I would argue that the economic impact of Malaysians who work in Singapore would be much larger given that they spend a larger proportion of their salaries in Singapore. This effect on inflation for Malaysians who work in JB is non-trivial as we news reports of better travel budgets and expensive home renovations made in Malaysia. 

My buddy has his share of envy from his relatives who are green-eyed because he earns SGD and spends MYR. I like his retort though, he asks them whether they liked spending the bulk of their lives travelling to Singapore to study at 4am in the morning. 

 All things considered, my views on investing in Malaysia have not changed. I regret that I was unable to liquidate my family's properties in JB and now I'm experiencing shrinking rents after currency translation. While I am trying to increase my time spent in Malaysia just to escape the high cost of living back in Singapore, my suggestion is to simply rent rather than buy from Malaysia. 

The long-term view is murky. It is now vital that the Anwer government survive this term and hopefully gain another.  The Perikatan National Party is known for the worst policy decision in the country for letting citizens draw from their EPF during the pandemic, so I hope they don't win,


I cannot imagine the Singaporean government ever publishing such figures as it may reinforce racial stereotypes back home, but this is certainly disturbing given that many Malaysian Chinese not only have EPF but also CPF in Singapore.

The Ringgit will continue to weaken, but I think Singaporeans will not enjoy the full effects unless they move further north away from JB where many folks actually earn in SGD. 




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