Growing your tree of prosperity
Growing your Tree of Prosperity is an introductory investment guide written specifically for Singaporeans who wish to take their first step towards financial independence.
Saturday, May 14, 2022
Yes, I am now in the Million LUNA Round Table or MLRT !
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
A LUNAtic is born !
- A 30% drop in stablecoin value is no big deal compared to what tech investors are experiencing as of late, as a product of Singapore's education system, I know it's not important how well you fare, but also how badly others do. No point in choosing to be a millionaire surrounded by billionaires.
- Amazingly, collateral-backed stablecoins like USDT and USDC remained stable these few days, so at least the strategy of diversifying across stablecoins worked to mitigate losses for my students. I even expect some students to miss out on Anchor protocol because setup is so complicated.
- The third reason is LUNA :
Monday, May 09, 2022
On Benz Hui, greater intelligence, and small intelligence.
Thursday, May 05, 2022
Test trip to JB !
Our troubles did not end there. Having a Touch and GO card is vital to get into Malaysia but we did not have a card with credits. We got stuck after our passport was cleared in Malaysia customs. Lucky, my plucky BIL managed to seek help from a customs officer and we were able to clear customs, but if you don't rely some some persuasion, I really would not know what would have happened to us.
This is, apparently, a major issue for drivers.
Of course, my troubles did not end there.
c) Breakfast was good.
The only good thing that happened today was Storia Cafe, their mee siam and Otak is out of this world. Go google for details before your next trip. The boss has a reputation for being a damn nice guy and he rounded down the bill. In the end, I paid $3 SGD per head for a full breakfast !
I'm grateful to my BIL who researched that place thoroughly and it was his first meal there too.
d) ATM card fails after long absence
So all I wanted to do was some banking. We could not withdraw money because the ATM card expired and undoing it would mean an hour of wait. There are two manual forms to fill but lucky the staff we had was super steady. Bank was obviously understaffed even though they should expect hordes of Singaporeans to come down to make withdrawals.
One poor Singaporean uncle I met actually could only complete his work on his second visit. It was just a long line of sad looking Singaporeans at the bank today because they can't withdraw their cash.
e) Bank probably cut into a new database, so may not have your records.
Oh it did not end there. My mum has been banking with the same branch for 30 over years and they claimed not to have my mother's PR status, so we had to fill more forms to update the database.
f) Strange questions asked during TT of cash to Singapore.
The thing about TT to Singapore is that AML measures need to be taken, but this was not the first time we did this. We had our Singapore bank books, but staff wanted to confirm whether the joint account can be acted upon independently and this confused my mum and I could not recall what the right answer should be. I had to be there to answer some questions for the paperwork to clear.
For noob, make sure you copy down the SWIFT codes for the local bank and account number manually before you go and bring an account statement or bank book with you. I panicked because I had no data plan in Malaysia and had to use Wifi until I realized my mum had the Singapore bank book along.
Naturally we did the paperwork successfully but it will take a few days to figure out whether we succeeded.
I think there are probably a lot of savvier guys who can think of better ways to go about doing what I did. I'm largely constrained by the systems setup by my parents 3 decades ago and most of the paperwork is not under my name. This is not sustainable, so starting tomorrow, I will be actively trying to decouple my mum's current bank from our family's financial operations and building a better one that works online.
Overall, the trip was worth it because it solved a lot of ongoing issues with family finances. Otherwise, it was really sad to see the devastation of City Square, MPH Bookstore is gone but fortunately, I got some really good Malaysian finance books in Popular bookstore.
It's one thing to feel powerful because your dollar is worth more than three of your neighbors currency, but if there are only a few shops to buy stuff from, what is the point ?
City Square will probably heal in six months. I will take few more surgical trips to Malaysia on weekdays to visit other areas like Midvalley Southkey, but I think a bus trip to KL is in order.
Saturday, April 30, 2022
Being aware of the latest FA tricks of the trade.
Tuesday, April 26, 2022
Back to the Grind
I'm still dead tired but I started updating my Cryptocurrency notes this morning. I think things have changed so much I am overhauling 20% of my material :
a) Crypto.com now accepts FAST transfers from local banks, rendering my notes on a centralized exchange obsolete. Significant portions of material became optional overnight, but this should make it easier for older investors to get started in crypto.
b) I'm now more open-minded about liquidity mining and think 1% allocation is ok, so I need to ramp up my notes in this area. Mouth watering yields over 100% is possible but so is losing your pants.
c) I suspect one of my students installed a hacked Terra Station wallet and it siphoned off his funds. The amount is small but I have to incorporate some troubleshooting notes. How do we the software we are installing is the right one? If we cannot answer these questions definitively, investing crypto will continue to be a bad idea.
I'm slowly beginning to realize that my course material is several magnitudes more dynamic than my notes on traditional dividends investing so creating an online webinar may not be feasible and I need to continue to run my classes live and adjust the fees accordingly.
As a business, we have go with our gut feel and learn new stuff along the way. I think there is blue ocean for trainers who can combine traditional and crypto investing in a coherent way that respects the fundamentals of finance.
How to really get there is the problem.
Saturday, April 23, 2022
Letter to Batch 25 of the Early Retirement Masterclass
Dear Students of Batch 25,
It’s been a great honour and privilege to conduct a 5-Day Early Retirement Workshop for you.
The current economic situation is a precarious balance between the optimism of recovery from the Omicron strain. I expect the following week to be bullish for Singapore markets as we move from DORSCON Orange to DORSCON Yellow. This will be primarily for REIT counters related to office and retail spaces.
However, there are dark clouds on the horizon.
America is looking at PE ratios above 35 and an inverted yield curve. Interest rates are expected to rise and while this will benefit local banks, it would be detrimental to growth sectors like Tech. We are also in the middle of a conflict in Eastern Europe, and any form of escalation will not bode well for our investment portfolios. As China grapples with COVID-19 without an mRNA vaccine to call their own, we cannot rule out a technical recession in Singapore as China stubbornly adheres to the zero COVID policy. However, I would like to think that, if this happens, this should be a bargain-hunting opportunity.
Nevertheless, Batch 25 has taken a slightly higher risk in-stock selections, likely directed by the factor models we’ve built. We’ve accepted 15 counters and rejected 8 of them with a strong bias towards higher dividend yields, and the final portfolio is projected to yield 6.2%, which is not too bad for the current climate.
I’m cautiously optimistic about the performance of this batch of students as we’re coming in at a point when the equity risk premium of the Singapore stock market has been rising for three consecutive courses I have run, but no investment strategy is fool-proof. I wish that students can take the lesson to heart that a 2-standard deviation drop from the mean can still mean a hefty 15-20% capital loss.
Lastly, I hope that Batch 25 will participate actively in the FB group. Sometime in Q2 2022, we should be meeting up for an online community webinar. At the time of writing, I have yet to determine the subject matter of this discussion, so suggestions are welcome.
Hope to see you then!
Christopher Ng Wai Chung