Growing your tree of prosperity
Growing your Tree of Prosperity is an introductory investment guide written specifically for Singaporeans who wish to take their first step towards financial independence.
Monday, August 24, 2026
How to think about the Return on Education for degree programs in Singapore
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Why I did not date until my passive income hit $600 a month
Someone wanted me to elaborate on my idea that a guy shouldn't date until he has a source of passive income.
So maybe I share a little bit of my story when I was starting out with the FIRE movement.
In my twenties, there wasn't a FIRE movement, but I was acutely aware of what was likely to happen to me in my 50s due to the lack of folks in their 50s in an American MNC, so I started saving like crazy because the outsourcing wave had just started and companies were farming off their IT departments to benefit from labor arbitrage. In those days, ETFs did not exist, so my funds were mainly in a Templeton Global Equity Fund, which I eventually liquidated and transferred to a CDP portfolio of dividend stocks.
Once I started collecting dividends, it became very natural to want a certain amount of money on average every month. I settled on $600 a month because it was my allowance during my university days. At that time, my benchmark-yielding stock was SPH, which yielded about 6%, so I just needed $120,000 in my CDP across various stocks and REITs that yielded about 6% to meet my target.
Prior to hitting this target, I didn't really date during my single days because I didn't think I could be a good provider if I couldn't at least replicate my University allowance through an investment portfolio. At the very least, I just needed my investment income to pay for dates.
Looking back, now that I am in my 50s, a lot of the things I predicted have come true!
Folks of my generation are losing their jobs to retrenchment exercises, and ageism practically guarantees that they will spend their days doing SkillFutures courses and watching their savings dwindle before finding a job that pays half as much.
So recently, I've doubled down on this idea.
I think Gen Z is in a transitional phase where guys are still expected to play the role of provider, but women are becoming more financially independent, and jobs are no longer as stable as before. Right now, some kind of new masculinity is still a work in progress, so guys still need to man up and play a provider role. And, I suspect in practice, throughout a marriage, both spouses may have to endure periods of unemployment throughout their working lives, but guys stand to take a larger hit to their egos if they can't play the role of a provider in a family unit.
To make things more interesting, I'm going to borrow some software engineering concepts from this excellent book, which I'm currently obsessed with, Designing Data-Intensive Applications, which is rapidly becoming the go-to book for casual-vibe coders looking to level up to senior-level engineering skills.
The book distinguishes between a fault and a failure.
In an array of hard disks in a RAID-5 arrangement, one hard disk failure is a fault. It can be replaced with no real system outage because RAID-5 is fault-tolerant. Just pull the hard disk out and put a new one in, and you're good to go. However, if two hard disks fail in a RAID-5 array, we have a failure because recovery is impossible without replacing hardware, followed by tape recovery.
So you can recover from a fault painlessly, but generally, failures can be events that you might not recover from.
Taking this back to family economics, in an ideal world, both spouses work, but if one spouse gets retrenched, it is just a fault in the system, and the family can recover so long as one spouse can hold the fort while the other finds a job.
But in practice, traditional norms ensure that if the wife loses her job, it's a fault that can be overcome. But if the husband loses the job, it's a failure. We see that many divorces are triggered by a lack of economic means on the husband's part or his inability to keep up with the wife's capabilities.
So if this observation is true, then the husband must develop fault tolerance internally.
The most basic approach is for the husband to generate multiple sources of income. This can be created with rental property, blue-chip stocks, song royalties, or a side hustle. The best source of side income should be passive, because you still have a day job to take care of.
So I think a young man should ask himself how much he will need to eke out a bare-bones existence living with his parents. Calculate the minimum amount of expenses you need. I think you can squeeze by on $500 a month.
Now, to generate this amount a month using a portfolio that yields 4%, multiply the number by 300. So, to generate $500 a month at a 4% yield, you will need $150,000 (300 x $500). The numbers look daunting at first, but if you can get $30,000, your monthly income will be raised by $100 a month, making the next $100 much easier to achieve with the salary raises you made along the way.
Of course, imagining that you can live on $500 a month is not enough.
We have to test it in a business continuity planning exercise.
While holding onto your job, you might want to just completely save your entire salary and set aside monthly expenses of just $500 just to see if you can survive on that.
Should young men who read this article follow my lead and refrain from entering the dating market until they have a passive income stream?
With AI disrupting the workplace, I think even if the young man refuses to ever enter the dating market, he needs a source of income if he finds that his skills are no longer valuable in the job market.
And young women, too, because the income from Gen Z guys is hardly reliable these days.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
The Four Types of Singaporean Investor: Why the "Safest" One Might Be the Riskiest
Ask ten Singaporeans how they're investing for the future, and you'll get ten different answers: a crypto wallet here, an ETF portfolio there, a stack of bank and REIT counters, or a shrug and "I'm just focused on my career right now." Look closely, and discounting the sophisticated investors who like to flex their alternative assets, and those answers collapse into four recognizable archetypes, each with its own relationship to risk, time horizon, and definition of "winning". Three of them know they're taking a risk. The fourth doesn't realize it's taking one at all, which is exactly what makes it dangerous.
1. The Speculator: Chasing
the Fast Buck
At one end
sits the get-rich-quick trader, drawn to crypto tokens, contracts for
difference, and leveraged options, hoping to compress decades of returns into
months. This group tends to be younger, chronically online, and quick to
mistake volatility for opportunity. The wins get broadcast on Telegram groups
and TikTok; the losses are quietly absorbed.
The numbers
suggest this crowd is larger than it looks and more nuanced than the
stereotype implies. A 2025 Coinbase x MoneyHero survey of over 3,500 respondents found
that 61% of Singapore retail investors now hold some cryptocurrency, yet
average allocations were a conservative 6-12% of their portfolios, and 58%
described themselves as long-term holders versus 22% who identified as
active traders. In other words, most people who own crypto in Singapore
aren't the archetype: they've bought a small position and left it alone. The
true speculator is a narrower, louder subset: the trader who treats derivatives
and leveraged tokens as a primary income strategy rather than a small satellite
position.
It's not that
speculation is inherently irrational. SGX itself runs a substantial derivatives
franchise, and options and futures serve real hedging purposes for
sophisticated investors. The trouble is that for the retail speculator,
position sizing and risk management are usually the first casualties of the
chase for a fast buck. A trade that would be a reasonable 2% hedge for an
institution becomes a 50% bet on a single altcoin for a 24-year-old trying to
skip the queue to financial freedom.
2. The Builder: Quietly
Compounding Through Low-Cost ETFs
A second, more
disciplined group has emerged over the last decade: the savvy careerist who
treats investing as a payroll deduction rather than a hobby. They dollar-cost
average into low-cost, broadly diversified ETFs (a Straits Times Index tracker,
a global equity fund, sometimes a REIT ETF for local income flavor) and
largely ignore the noise in between.
This is no
longer a niche habit. SGX-listed ETF assets under management hit S$16.3
billion by Q3 2025, up 40% year-on-year, and the SPDR STI ETF (ES3) alone
pulled in roughly S$387 million of net inflows over the year, at a total
expense ratio of just 0.28% a year. CPF and SRS investors have become one of
the biggest forces behind this growth, funneling forced or tax-deferred
savings into the same handful of low-cost, broad-based funds month after month.
Their edge
isn't stock-picking skill; it's a stable income, a long horizon, and the
discipline to automate the decision so emotion never gets a vote. This is the
group financial educators spend the most time trying to grow, because it's the
one strategy that scales to the average person without requiring either luck or
genius: you don't need to correctly call the next hot sector; you just need to
keep buying the whole market and get out of your own way.
3. The Income Seeker:
Living Off Dividends
Then there's
the old-school investor, typically further along in their career or already
retired, who built a portfolio of blue-chip dividend payers (banks, REITs,
telcos) specifically to generate a spendable income stream. For this group,
share price appreciation is almost beside the point; what matters is whether
the dividend cheque covers the month's expenses.
The appeal is
easy to understand: a basket of well-run Singapore REITs is currently yielding
in the 5.5-6%+ range, comfortably ahead of the roughly 3-3.5% yield on
10-year Singapore government bonds, and paid out quarterly or semi-annually
like clockwork. For someone who has already accumulated capital and simply
wants it to pay them a salary, that's a compelling proposition.
It's a
philosophy suited to a low-growth, income-hungry stage of life, though it
carries its own blind spot: chasing yield can concentrate a portfolio in a
handful of rate-sensitive sectors, and a payout that looks safe on a dividend
calendar can still get cut when the underlying business (a hospitality trust in
a downturn, a retail landlord facing an anchor tenant's exit) hits a rough
patch. A high yield is sometimes the market's way of pricing in a risk the
investor hasn't priced in yet.
4. The Ignorant Masses:
Betting Everything on a Single Career
The fourth
group barely considers itself "investing" at all, which is exactly
the problem. This is the mass of Singaporeans who pour their financial energy
entirely into a single career, climbing the corporate ladder, chasing
promotions and bonuses, while treating that income as the only asset that
matters. It feels safe because it's familiar and within their control, but it's
really a concentrated, undiversified bet on one employer, one industry, and
their own continued health and employability, with no hedge if any of those
three falters.
2025 gave this
group an uncomfortable reality check. Singapore recorded 14,490
retrenchments, up from 12,930 in 2024, with the incidence rate climbing to
6.3 per 1,000 employees. PMETs (the professionals, managers, executives and
technicians who make up exactly the "safe career" crowd) were hit
hardest, with a retrenchment rate of 10.1 per 1,000, up from 8.6 the
year before and above pre-recessionary averages, concentrated in financial
services, info-comms and professional services. A retrenchment, an industry
downturn, or a health scare exposes just how little of their financial life was
ever actually diversified, because the career was never a separate asset from
their income; it was the only asset.
Same Spectrum, Different
Blind Spots
These four
types map onto a spectrum of risk awareness, not risk tolerance. The speculator
takes on visible risk in pursuit of outsized reward, and at least knows it:
nobody puts money into a leveraged token thinking it's a sure thing. The
builder and the income seeker each manage risk through a defined strategy
suited to their life stage: accumulate broadly while young, tilt toward income
as retirement nears. The career-only saver, by contrast, carries risk they
don't even recognize as risk, which is precisely why it's the hardest of the
four to fix: you can't diversify away from a danger you don't believe exists.
The healthiest
financial life for most Singaporeans probably borrows a little from the middle
two archetypes: steady, diversified accumulation in the working years via
low-cost ETFs, gradually tilting toward dividend-paying income as retirement
nears, while treating both blind speculation and blind faith in a single
paycheque as two versions of the same mistake: concentrating your entire
financial future in one bet and calling it safe because it's familiar.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Happy National Day ! Let's talk about something that stresses you
Of late, the Chinese have been expressing some regret over their system.
Looking at the lenses through which the Gaokao matters, I can now see why the PSLE makes sense to us. Even though we are not (that) corrupt, a tournament gives everyone some kind of a hedge in case corruption rears its ugly head in the future. It's also a powerful way for the government to determine what is rewarded in society in the future.
Wednesday, August 05, 2026
The curious case of Colin Lau's Early Retirement
c) You still need to do a bit to take care of your health
A serious health scare in June 2025 left him hospitalised for 62 days with 15 surgeries and a S$146,000 bill that is covered fully by insurance and subsidised ward class, so he paid nothing out of pocket. I'm actually surprised that he is willing to pay for some kind of insurance plan.
Nevertheless, I think his planning and possible C/B2 class ward stay are the reasons why he's still alive today. I can't help but feel quite sorry for him after looking at this episode.
Of course, this video raises a lot of questions as to whether someone can find a tiny little flat to live in without paying for a home mortgage. I doubt it's possible if you want a remaining lease of 60+ years, but if you are in your 60s and want something with less than 40 years, it might be possible. Also, I suspect the government may allow low-cost rental housing for singles in the future, so it's possible to build a dividend portfolio to pay off the rent for a one-room flat. Whatever it is, Gen Z would need to find a creative solution to replicate the same results.
Finally, there's no way to sugarcoat this, but Colin Lau is making the same mistake as the other ultra-frugal FIRE thought leaders in Singapore, all of whom are frugal single men.
What is he going to do to deal with loneliness when he gets older?
I think charity work is an important component of having a meaningful life, but being frugal to the point of remaining single might mean a lonely existence when you enter your 70s or 80s. There are some things that having a family and children can do for you - if you need to go for an operation, at least your kids (if raised well) will be there for you.
You can Google the number of deaths from loneliness; it kills at three times the rate of heart attacks. And men tend to be even lonelier than women as they get older.
But no FIRE blogger really wants to blog about the endgame when they hit their 70s; they just want to showcase their frugality porn on the web.
Monday, August 03, 2026
How an investor can benefit from the Feynman Technique
So, I've gone even further and given my software chatbot capabilities to answer questions about what I should do with my portfolio. In this example, the AI tells me to ditch ESR REIT for Sabana REIT.
Saturday, July 25, 2026
Catch me on Chills 276: The Smarter Way To Build Wealth While Working Full-Time
Most people trying to get rich faster are optimising the wrong variable. They're looking for a better fund, a better broker, a better entry price — when the portfolio is still too small for any of that to matter. That was the starting point for this week's Chills with TFC episode, where The Financial Coconut put three of us in one conversation: Chris How (semi-retired, retireby50.me), Chris Chong (ex-accountant, 45K-subscriber FIRE channel), and me. One commenter in the video called it "Chris's universe" — accurate, and a reasonable summary of how the hour went.
The core argument won't surprise anyone who's read Growing Your Tree of Prosperity or sat through my $100,000 challenge material: for someone in their 20s or 30s, the return on a small portfolio is noise compared to the return on growing income and controlling spending. Financial independence is a cash-flow engineering problem before it's an investing problem. Salary truncation — fix the lifestyle cost, direct the surplus, invest it on a system — still does more work than any stock pick. That hasn't changed since 2005. It's just less interesting to say than "which counter should I buy."
The more useful part of the discussion was what's aged badly, and why. Not just a list — the reasoning behind each one:
- Crypto hype rewarded timing, not process. Most people who made money were early, not right, and the strategy doesn't survive being repeated.
- Thematic funds chase last quarter's winner into your portfolio at the point it's most expensive, with a fee structure built for the fund house's marketing calendar, not your holding period.
- Job loyalty as a wealth strategy conflates tenure with security. It ignores that the employer's incentives and yours diverge the moment restructuring becomes cheaper than raises.
- Over-reliance on one strategy fails the same way concentrated stock positions fail — it works until the one condition it depends on stops holding, and there's no second system to fall back on.
We also went through robo-advisors, brokers, CPF, and regular savings plans versus the newer dynamic RSPs — and the thread connecting all of them is that every platform has an incentive that isn't automatically yours. A broker earns from turnover. A robo-advisor earns from AUM regardless of your outcome. That's not a reason to avoid them; it's a reason to know what you're being sold before you decide whether it fits.
Which is the real question the episode keeps returning to: not "what gives the highest returns," but "what game am I actually playing, and does this strategy fit my life?" Same question I put to students in the "Are You Investing or Just Collecting Stocks?" sessions — most retail investors can show you a portfolio but not a strategy, and the gap only becomes visible after something breaks.
Disclosure, since it's directly relevant to the RSP discussion: this episode is sponsored by Webull, and part of the conversation covers their Dynamic RSP — reportedly the first of its kind in Singapore. Mechanically, it adjusts contribution size to price: more when prices fall, less when they run up, instead of the fixed monthly amount a standard RSP commits you to. That's a variation on dollar-cost averaging worth understanding on its mechanics, not its marketing. Webull is also running zero-fee US stock and ETF trading — no commissions, no platform fees — separate from the RSP feature and worth checking regardless of which savings plan you use.