Growing your Tree of Prosperity is an introductory investment guide written specifically for Singaporeans who wish to take their first step towards financial independence.
Sunday, November 28, 2021
How's your paper thosai private degree doing ?
Friday, November 26, 2021
Free food, so must write something
This week investment writers have been invited to a session with Keppel Pacific Oak REIT to have a discussion on their latest results. I don't want to steal the thunder away from writers who might discuss the details, I will just share some points that were not discussed that day:
- I have a decent amount of Keppel Pacific Oak and this is still one of my more profitable holdings as I bought a position when there was uncertainty over taxation rules of US REITS listed in Singapore.
- Keppel Pacific Oak continues to be shortlisted in my factor models, but my students have decided not to pick it up in the last round early this month.
- I actually disagreed with my student's analysis after this pleasant luncheon and consequently supported the counter when I sent my research to iFast for clients of their Introducer service. If anything, it will boost the yield of the portfolio substantially.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Will Goh Keng Swee buy Cryptocurrencies for Singapore ?
I thought that after doing up my article on investing like GIC (link), this blog should have a discussion on more advanced topics that cannot be answered even with access to advanced data, so it falls to my blog readers to speculate on possible answers.
Goh Keng Swee's contribution to Singapore as a founding father is uniquely consequential. He made decisions that were counter-intuitive for its time such as employing exchange rate controls to prevent inflation and keeping the nation competitive instead of managing interest rates as central banks in other countries. He was one of the earliest politicians to recognize that investing in equities can lead to higher returns. He was also very much of a "buccaneer", buying 100 tons of gold at $40 an ounce through a secretive private deal in 1968.
So the question I have for everyone is: Will Goh Keng Swee buy Cryptocurrencies for Singapore?
Imagine if Goh Keng Swee is still around and in his prime. He has powers of influence over GIC, Temasek, and MAS.
Would he include cryptocurrency in Singapore's asset allocation?
The answer may need to be answered in multiple parts :
a) Should Singapore include cryptocurrency in short-term foreign reserves under MAS?
MAS tries to keep the Singapore dollar within two boundaries. If SGD becomes too strong, MAS will sell SGD for more foreign currencies. If SGD becomes too weak, we will buy back SGD using our foreign reserves. This was we can either control inflation or make our exports more competitive.
Will these reserves benefit from a small allocation to bitcoins?
My knowledge is quite shallow. In my opinion, there is currently no need to do so because we don't do actual business in SGDBTC. If a major trading partner makes Bitcoin legal tender, this cannot be discounted.
b) Should GIC's policy portfolio include cryptocurrency?
To meet GIC's long-term objectives, a team will determine what asset classes it can deal in. GIC was an early adopter of private equity so I don't see what impediments there will be to prevent cryptocurrency to be added to the mix. I would expect that if GIC were to do so, positions would be very small and diversified across many other cryptocurrencies.
There will be a lot of impediments to making this a reality. Financial experts need to contend with new forms of risk ( like smart contract risk or oracles getting manipulated by hackers ).
One area that possibly needs to be addressed is volatility drag. The calculation for Geometric mean returns is not just the arithmetic mean returns. We have to deduct half the variance from average returns to get actual geometric mean returns.
GBTC returns (on Portfolio Visualizer) over the past 3 years are an annualized 66.39% with a standard deviation of 82.21%. The actual geometric return you will experience over time is 0.6639 - (0.8221^2) / 2 or 32.6%.
It's still not too bad, but not as hyped up as many investors make it out to be.
I suspect Goh Keng Swee will jump right in since GIC's time horizon is really long and no one will really know how much GIC really has.
Anyway, readers are free to share given what you know about our history, what your answer would be.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Interesting encounters in my line of work...
One of the dilemmas about investment training is which target market you would like to pitch your product to.
My approach is to build a course with actionable ideas and hands-on practice so some amount of maths and financial theory is unavoidable. To earn more, I can widen my reach and even increase my price if I water down my material - one approach is to make my material more motivational just like the property gurus, but I suspect I won't be able to sustain this as I would feel that the material belongs to someone else. Also, doing this would put me up against someone with a much bigger budget, who can really get in your face every time you visit Youtube.
So with a more targeted niche audience, sometimes I get more interesting encounters that put an interesting spin on the materials I present to the public.
Last week, a fairly sophisticated attendee commented about how my presentation is a unique spin on M&M and almost flat-footed me during Q&A. Fortunately, I remembered that M&M stood for "Modigliani and Miller" who came up with their idea that the company value is unaffected by its dividend policy. This idea of dividends irrelevance arises from the idea that issuing a dividend reduces the firm value by the same amount.
I've got financial advisors trolling me in the past, almost all are intellectual light-weights, and this is the first time someone brought up M&M in my talk so I felt that a better answer from my session last week is in order.
While I do emphasise the employment of dividends for early retirement, the yield of my student portfolios are really nothing to crow about, it's about 5%, just a tad higher than ETFs. You can easily beat my 5% if you lump HPH Trust, Asia Pay TV Trust, United Hampshire REIT and Elite Commercial REIT in a portfolio and buy it in equal shares. In my program, we try to optimise the Sortino ratio, so we max out our risk-adjusted returns to make it friendlier for financial leverage, and it just happens that the high-dividends factor currently works in Singapore.
I can't read the mind of the attendee, maybe as our models employ capital gains and dividends, maybe an argument can be spun that we align with M&M because we rank capital gains in the same category as dividends.
Now, that being said, after some thought, I can possibly put up an argument that dividends can be superior to capital gains in Singapore. If you sell your stock to free up cash for personal expenses, you will need to pay a brokerage fee. A dividends investor gets the dividend delivered into his bank account for free. This is not a strong argument in the world of equities, but it may be very consequential in the world of cryptocurrency when gas fees in the ETH blockchain are killing crypto bros.
Anyway, I doubt that I managed to sell an actual ticket to the attendee, even though I'd admit that I do want more students of that calibre. I've trained CFA trainers, Phds and MAS regulators and someone like this can possibly teach me a thing or two about finance theory. Having more folks like this will also raise the level of my community which is getting closer to 600 in size.
But trainers like me are doomed to stay small and niche.
I can imagine myself trolling some options guru in the Y2K-era and talking about Modigliani and Miller and at least one famous guy from that era is known to say to his critics," That's why you don't have the mindset to be a millionaire."
Anyway, don't lose any sleep if have no idea what I'm talking about in this article.
Wednesday, November 17, 2021
The Financial Jackass of the Year
- Maxed out the $15,300 into SRS and poured it into stocks very similar to what's taught in my programmes.
- Recorded all my revenues and pumped 37% into CPF, making voluntary contributions across all accounts.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Letter to Batch 23 of the Early Retirement Masterclass
Dear Students of Batch 23,
It’s been a great honour and privilege to be able to conduct a 5-Day Early Retirement Workshop for you.
With 2021 coming to an end, we have concluded our final class of 2021. We’re ending the year on an aggressive note as the STI reaches 3,200. At the end of the tunnel, there is light as humanity begins to deploy a COVID-19 pill that can be a game-changer for office, aviation, and hospitality stocks.
Value investing may even become more profitable locally throughout 2022 for local stocks. One of the possible futures is that with the winding down of the Fed’s bond-buying, we may be seeing interest rates rise in 2022. Ending an era of low-interest rates may result in a sea-change of factors models that lead to outperformance. We have just witnessed the success of value investing factors in the local stock markets for the first time.
This class is also unusually savage with discarding stock suggestions. We’ve got an elegant 14 stock portfolio that is more concentrated than previous batches confirming that this class is quite discerning about what stocks they want in their portfolios. I have also decided to allow two banking stock picks the first time as we expect higher interest rates in the future.
Finally, I must say that while the class is quiet compared to previous batches, the quality of the questions asked in class was relatively high. One question that stumped me concerned whether having a margin account would affect the TDSR for getting home loans. Look to the Facebook group as I draft my opinions on what I think the answer is.
Lastly, I hope that Batch 23 will participate actively in the FB group. In December 2021, we should be meeting up for an online webinar on integrating Early Retirement principles into Cryptocurrency investing.
Hope to see you then!
Christopher Ng Wai Chung
Monday, November 08, 2021
TIme management and why the lives of digital nomads suck
Sunday, November 07, 2021
What can we do in case we become unemployable one day?
I read with dismay some of the stories in this CNA article on mature PMETS. As I have tried to work in the public and legal sectors before, the idea of being unwanted because of m age is not new to me.
But the story on pseudonym Siva really takes the cake.
This is a mechanical engineer who claims to have IT and project management qualifications and yet, does not know how to google the web on steps to become a private-hire driver. Is it fair to sympathise with the fact that he was unable to find a job for the last 7 years?
Sometimes, you really have to spare a thought for hirers as well, who's got the time to teach folks the basics like googling the web. Businesses are not charities.
I realise how scary the Siva's in Singapore are. I'm 47 years old this year, will I become a Siva in a decade? Will the older Millenials become a Siva in 20 years?
If 50-somethings in Singapore lack the basic skills to be employable, some may actually join an SME and tar their hiring experience. Over time, HR professionals will join an alarm every time a 50-something candidate arrives. One day even a decent candidate will be turned down if the SME has had negative experiences before. I heard of at least one rumour that one large law firm has a policy of never hiring SMU JD graduates. These things happen.
Even I'm not getting any younger. If I become irrelevant one day, it may be due to the following reasons :
a) Quantum Computing - This is the largest paradigm shift that can make even a fresh grad today obsolete.
Once computers no longer run on 1s and 0s and instead on qubits, the foundations of computer science becomes useless. Instead we have to pick up new ideas with Bloch Spheres and Hadamard Transforms, currently taught in local physics programs.
Even the social sciences are betting transformed, In 2022, a book on Quantum economics will be published.
I'm struggling to understand this now, but it's harder than anything I've ever done before.
b) The Metaverse - We don't even know what this is
One day, young folks will just disappear from the Web. They may emerge in a VR world where they work, play and earn some universal currency backed by the FB central bank. I cannot even imagine what devices will be required to jack in into the Metaverse, but some crazy computer scientist will invent an in-metaverse computing platform so we have a platform within the space.
I suspect by then, I will be too old to play this new game which is the Inception movie in real life.
The only silver lining out of this is that Gen X will enjoy watching Gen Y grow into their 40s and begin their mid-life crisis. My generation is still quite conscientious and enjoyed half of the property boom. It will be entertaining to see how avocado-eating work-life balance advocates with their version of a mid-life crisis where they get displaced by Gen Z.
How to prepare for the day we become unemployable?
a) Invest aggressively
To resolve the issue, there is an age-old FIRE movement to be able to live on investments before obsolesces kick in. I expect younger guys to incorporate a large cryptocurrency component to their version of FIRE, which I am building, not for me, but for my kids. Defi in particularly is very friendly to the FIRE movement.
b) Entrepreneurship
Beyond financial investments, starting a business or dabbling in entrepreneurship may no longer be optional. The savvy employee may take a break from employment to try their hand on business with a full view that failure may see the back in employment. My bet is that running businesses may become a way to cope with mental health issues, where Gen Z will take a break to run a small business when their workplaces become too toxic.
The idea is that one day, you can afford to employ yourself.
Anyway, do read the CNA article.
If anything, just don't become a Siva ok?
Thursday, November 04, 2021
A Holistic Approach towards Personal Development
This book had a really strange effect on me. After reviewing it, I realise that we've really been too micro when it comes to personal development. Self-improvement is way broader than that.
Interestingly, the mental model I propose is the Self Development Stack that is similar to TCP/IP or OSI stack we use today on the web. I think there are 7 layers to personal development each with its associated discipline and readings.
Mastery of the entire stack may take a lifetime of personal cultivation.
So here's my model :
a) Identity
At the highest level is your identity. This is your personality and it may not be totally malleable. The best way to model your personality is the OCEAN personality model where each aspect of your personality has a biological analogue. Agreeable people have higher levels of oxycontin, openness to new experience has a larger amount of neural connections.
You learn more about your identity, you can use personality tests. The MBTI comes into mind but folks also use models like the Enneagram. Our current non-fiction lists is dominated by books based on the DISC personality model.
b) Philosophy
This is the level where gurus like Tim Ferriss fits in. Personal Philosophy is the operating system of your mind. A Stoic who sees life as an endless series of challenges will have a different worldview of an Epicurean who wants to enjoy himself and immerse himself in different sensations.
Thankfully for the rest of the world, there is still no such thing as pop philosophy. Understanding his segment is hard because you may have to disentangle how you feel about truth (Epistemology), beauty (Aesthetics) or even the nature of god (Metaphysics). If you go far enough, this can even get you a PhD.
This will always be subordinate to your personality. No matter how attractive the Christian Gospel of Prosperity is, I will forever be disagreeable and will prefer to grow my own Tree of Prosperity.
c) Motivations
The following levels are your motivations which I have explored amply in my previous articles. By telling stories about yourself and discovering what makes you proud of your achievements, you will be able to define your core motivations in life.
The skill you need to master this layer is the ability to craft narratives about yourself. What is your Hero's Journey? Joseph Campbell's writings will be useful in this regard.
For me, growing up in a retail environment saw my parents forever being subject to paying rent to their landlords in spite of being businessmen themselves. So control to me is always about rent-seeking.
I am forever bound to control the chaos in my life.
d) Goals
Below your motivations are your goals. At this stage, this is where you pull out your SMART framework to define the goals that will guide you in your daily life. Goals need to be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-Bound.
Popular in the 90s, goals have come under attack as many folks fail in achieving their desired weight and net worth even after paying gurus thousands of dollars.
Naval Ravikant has possible my favourite definition of that a goal is :
A goal is a contract you make with yourself to stay unhappy until the goal is reached.
I still think that goals belong to the personal development stack.
e) Systems
If your goal is to attain financial freedom by age 40, a system is a method to turn your earnings into saving and convert your investments into passive income. Even after you meet your goal of becoming financially free, your system can keep running to make you even wealthier.
Goals set the limits of your personal success but systems can limit how far you can fail.
The current trend is that systems trump goals because systems are designed to kick in subconsciously and kick in when an event occurs. Systems are like Windows Services that run in your operation system.
At this stage, you need to consider the environment that will anchor your habits in the next step. Suppose you want to trade in cryptocurrencies, your challenges are to have a system to convert fiat to crypto, a system to stake and obtain APY from crypto, and finally a system to spend your crypto.
Personally, I'm struggling to put a system in place to trade crypto.
f) Habits
Systems consist of habits which are micro-programs and API function calls that allow the whole system to work.
Your system to convert savings into investments may contain a habit that automatically transfers $2,000 from your bank account to your Interactive Brokers account on your pay-day. Another habit is to buy an equity and bond UCITs ETF through successive limit orders at night.
This is why you read Atomic Habits by James Clear.
g) Actions
Finally, habits are nothing but a series of actions, all designed to happen instinctively so that you can invest your mental energy into something else.
This is the hardest part of personal development. Taking action.
Actions are not just bounded by your personal energy, they are bounded by the limited time you have on this earth.
So there you have it, my Personal Development Stack that can act as a framework to slot all the self-improvement books you read and guide you for further action. I leave this to you for discussion in the forums, a more detailed write-up is scheduled for the Dr. Wealth blog.
Before I leave, I will show you how different the stack is for someone who emphasizes earnings versus someone who focuses savings: