Monday, August 09, 2021

Happy National Day everyone !


Happy National Day Readers.

I was initially planning an article on retiring overseas but Seedly beat me to the punch. You can read their excellent article here

While I'm not really burnt out, I've been reading a lot but do not have a lot of insights recently. 

Maybe if I get some inspiration this week or if readers want me to write about something, you'll get something entertaining. 

In the meantime, enjoy your holidays! 


  1. I had a thought last week that we'll see a major US-China-Taiwan-Japan conflict within the next 10-15 years. Wonder how a Singapore-heavy portfolio can be shielded especially if a retiree or FIRE-er depends on it? A protracted war that spreads downwards into the south China seas would increase the -ve impact on the region's economy. Parts of China's eastern seaboard will also be targeted, crushing sentiments for China-heavy reits.

    The only beneficiaries will be US & S Koreas chip manufacturers, as Taiwan gets obliterated. (Unless TSMC moves 90% of its assets to US, Europe, Oz over the next decade)

    US & Chinese aerospace and defense stocks should be interesting in the next few years.

  2. If this happens, my portfolio will be in serious trouble !

  3. Think the odds are greater than 50% that this will happen. I've pushed this possibility to the back of my mind for 10 yrs. But geopolitical events over the past few years & especially over the past year has brought it to the forefront.

    Only question is how big a conflict, which will have major repercussions for S'pore & ASEAN.

    A short but intense series of armed air & naval actions may see the region's economy tank for 6-9 months followed by uneven recovery.

    A full-blown war involving Taiwan invasion & missile/air attacks on mainland China will likely crash Asia's economy for years.

    In both cases, Taiwan's economy & companies will be in ashes. Chinese related stocks & assets will be uninvestible & subjected to worldwide sanctions, embargos, and long-term bearishness.

    Ok, gold might do well.

  4. I suspect crypto will moon as well.