Sunday, July 04, 2021

So what if you are right?

The heightened alert phase has been much tougher than the circuit breaker. The circuit breaker came with more government support so everyone was more or less on the same page. HA has been less taxing fiscally but it was more demoralising as we were unable to have a drink at the nearest coffee shop. F&B was almost thrown to the dogs and there was no moratorium on mortgage loans. 

To be fair, I thrived during HA fiscally, but with less fiscal support from the government, I see a lot more unhappiness on social media and chat rooms. Every day Singaporeans are really hurt by this second lockdown.
  • We should not have open our legs to foreigners.
  • Hawker centre rents should not have gone up!
  • Singapore should side with China and go against the US!
There are times when everyone becomes an armchair policymaker. That cannot be helped because they are literally on their arm-chairs the whole day. 

I always find some kind of mental exercise to cope with these folks, many are friends and many getting crankier by the day.

Ask them one question: 

So what if you are right?

Unless you are direct this question to Lawrence Wong, even if the other is right, nothing ever happens. Almost all of us are subject to government policies and our government is too effective for much change to take place at the ballot box. 

A large part of these assertions are "normative" in nature - someone is pontificating about what ought to be true in Singapore society. This is always in opposition as to what actually holds true in Singapore.  Lawyers love thinking about what ought to be because they are often spared the consequences of real legal and economic reform. Of course, we want less inequality, but who will pay the taxes in this imaginary society?

In my business, I do my best to ask myself this question if I am called upon to make a prediction. 

We've done a session with Dr Wealth yesterday and I was asked to suggest one stock for the Dr Wealth portfolio yesterday. Dr Wealth's skin in the game was $10,000 on my selected stock, and it's not in my nature to see my business partner lose money on a prediction I made. So when I was planning my slides, I matched that $10,000 in an x2 leveraged account on that stock so that I can share the pain if my prediction underperforms.   

If anyone asks me so what if I am right, there are fiscal consequences mapped to the accuracy of my predictions. 

If I am right I stand to gain x2. If I am wrong I lose x2 as well. 

Last year, I was the only trainer who actually bet big on a V-shaped recovery with an actually x2.4 leveraged account bet. I was hoping no one remembered that but some folks remembered that and yelled it out in the chat room during the seminar. 

So this year, I'm more worried that someone will plough 100% into my prediction which some trolls have been spreading on social media.

Before you do this, I want to remind everyone that I also said that England will never win the European Cup two articles ago and England not only thrashed my favourite team Germany and has entered the semi-finals.  

Anyway, it's going to be a tough week personally for me starting Monday. 

This blog will resume after Wednesday when I give you guys a personal update. 

1 comment:

  1. Great post! "There are times when everyone becomes an armchair policymaker. That cannot be helped because they are literally on their arm-chairs the whole day. " Do you actually want to mean "These are times ..." rather than "there are"?