Monday, December 30, 2013

We should treat the $300,000 oath as relationship advice instead of financial advice.

Over the holiday season, a lot folks asked me how I derived the $300,000 as a target asset value a single Singaporean male should accumulate before he makes the decision to get married.

The primary idea behind $300,000 is that this amount that could generate a minimalist lifestyle to sustain a single male such that he can attempt to switch to a better job without having a ready job offer in hand. As a portfolio of REITs, Business trusts and dividend yielding stocks can be designed to yield about 8% in the current market, the $300,000 portfolio is expected to generate about $2,000 in monthly income. I estimate that a single male who has the discipline to generate $2,000 in passive income in his mid-thirties probably would not need more than $1,500 a month to live on and can even save about $500 a month to keep his portfolio growing.

After a discussion with other folks, perhaps you might think that 8% is too much of a stretch for a portfolio. As it turns out SGX has a decent number of stocks which yield about 6% but have a lot more potential for dividend growth. So with a different portfolio mix, our happy single bachelor can expect $1,500 a month which grows at the inflation rate without a need for reinvestment.

After some further thought over the holidays, I came to the conclusion that the $300,000 oath is good financial advice but works better as relationship advice.

Tyler Cowen of the Marginal Revolution fame wrote an article on Singapore's low birth rate which you can find here :

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/12/why-does-singapore-have-such-a-low-birth-rate.html

In this article, Tyler explains that ethnic Chinese birth rates are low in Singapore compared to Singaporean ethnic Malay birth rates or even ethnic Chinese birth rates in Malaysia. He attributes it largely to a combination of the successful education system in Singapore which gave women more opportunities in the workforce but the persistence of traditional values which makes ethnic Chinese women still want to marry up. This creates an oversupply of educated single women and uneducated single men who will never marry each other.

Tyler's epic conclusion is that Singaporean Chinese men simply need to be more confident about themselves.

So this is where the $300,000 oath comes into the picture :

a) Dating a Singaporean Chinese women in your 20s is challenging.

I have experienced this myself along with the tons of single men in my clique.

Dating a Singaporean Chinese woman while  in your 20s is exhausting and extremely damaging to your ego.

Some women keep a running list of priorities in their head and will cancel dates with you if a better candidate calls them out. Others who know that they are young and pretty will act like a princess and expect you to bend over backwards to accommodate them in most engagements. Most are not playing for keeps and will want to shop around until they have built their own careers.

By taking the $300,000 oath, you spend your 20s doing what you should be doing in the first place - accumulating wealth, clawing up the corporate ladder, and getting advanced degrees.

b) $300,000 in your pocket puts you higher up on her priority list.

There is something different about men in their mid-30s with $2,000 passive income every month. They are passionate at work and have the worldly experience to back it up. They are conversant in the world economy and have a proven track record in investments.

For lack of a better term, they ooze sex appeal and their star is expected to rise further.

A financially independent man in their mid-30s, ceteris paribus, better than a Gen-Y or Millenial boyfriend and can not only act as a companion to a woman, but also a wise mentor to the 20-something career woman.

So expect to be upgraded to the top of her list when you start opening up to better dating ideas.

This means fewer cancelled dates and less ruined movie tickets in the future.

c) You become God's gift to women at your 30s age group.

At this point,we need to be realistic, not every 30-something with $300,000 is going to attract a women in her 20s. Singaporean women in their 20s look great and have standards and some of you guys may be intensely introverted, lack facial symmetry, devoid of a sense of humor or not "evolutionarily-advantaged".

At this stage, have no fear, for there are legions of successful, clever and capable women in their mid-30s who are waiting to receive you with open arms !

It takes a very wise and capable man to accept a highly educated woman in her mid-30s. They generally won't fight with you over trivial affairs and are very pragmatic and realistic when planning a wedding. They are good dates and make supportive spouses.

So there you have it.

The $300,000 oath for a Singaporean Single male makes decent financial sense but in actual fact, it forms the foundation to having more confidence when engaging with members of the opposite sex.

Tyler Cowen talks about the need for confidence.

I am showing you how to buy it.
















Thursday, December 19, 2013

The hogwash that is 成家立业.

You don't need to spend 4 years in ACS to know that most Chinese proverbs are hogwash.

After failing every Chinese paper since leaving Secondary school, I have developed a natural tendency to be skeptical when someone tosses a mysterious proverb at me.

Today I will discuss the proverb 成家立业 or to settle down and establish a career. A variant of this proverb, duly expanded to six characters, interprets this as an act of settling down before establishing a career.

Chinese culture and language has a history spanning thousands of years. If we really think about the context for the creation of these proverbs, it does not take a lot of thought to know that they probably came about when China was still an agrarian economy.

In such a situation, a farmer should prioritise family before career because children act as extra pairs of hands in a farm. Having children earlier provides more cheap labour to be able to harvest more crops and earn enough to expand the farm or even have more children.

Fast forward to this modern day, Modern Chinese balk at the idea of starting families before they are ready to do so. Children requires more than 2 decades of nurturing before they can contribute to a knowledge-based economy.

But because folks naturally like the idea of starting a family and having children, they don't really spend a lot of time to think about the concept of readiness when it comes to having a family.

Yes, you can get married in your early thirties, the Government even wants you to do this. There are many banks who want you to get a mortgage along with that car. You are young, fabulous and upwardly mobile. You are worth it. YOLO !

Early marriages with a house, children and a car means financial liabilities in your 40s.

You would'nt feel it in your thirties because you are open-minded, sharp, dynamic and paid relatively lowly in the workforce so managers will tend to leave you alone.

When you get to your forties, your actions will bite you the ass. You need a high income to sustain your liabilities. As you have school-going kids, you hunker down and take whatever the corporate world tosses at you but you are no longer as fast as the younger guys in their 30s or as cheap as foreign talent.

A society with debt laden men in their 40s who willingly take anything the corporate world tosses at them will only create a management caste that would not relent on the workforce. Managers will be able to commit wanton acts of abuse as they know that for your salary, you will accept any terms the company has to offer. Don't believe me ? If your office as mid-life workers, go have lunch with them and find out how many actually feel that they are prisoners in the current job roles that they have ?

One of the ideas that Authorities would like to spread in Singapore is that car ownership should not be an aspiration. Hence COEs inflate the value of a car to about $150,000 or more. Cars are a luxury and have no place in the 5 Cs. You need to be very exceptional to be a car owner.

If you follow this train of thought and agree with the Authorities, then you will be able to accept my bitter realization and come upon this conclusion:

a) A wife, who has a right to co-own a flat with you and can potentially have your child, is not an aspiration.
b) A child, which cost upward of $1,000,000 to raise,  is also not an aspiration.

Like cars, a family is a luxury. You need to be very exceptional to be a family man.

立业成家

Based on my opinion, this should be the Mantra moving forward. Put career first, resolve all your mandatory expenses by land/equity ownership before moving on to start a family. If you can secure your family's basic survival by capital ownership and passive investment income, no company or abusive manager can put you in chains.

If you are a young male who wants to take on the world based on your own terms, start by imposing a Certificate of Marriage Entitlement (COME) of $300,000 on yourself. Work hard until this target is reached, then determine if you are willing to delay financial freedom by starting a family.

You'll never know where this approach to life will take you in the future.










Sunday, December 15, 2013

Relationship advice for the Single, Young and Male Investor (SYMI).

Conventional wisdom on love and marriage would be as follows :

a) Date while you are in University.
b) Get your degree.
c) Work for a few years.
d) Get married.
e) Get a home mortgage.
f) Get a car.
e) Work together towards kids and retirement.

This pre-packaged plan comes as part of the Singapore Dream.

If you had followed the plan earlier, you will become like the hundreds of colleagues I know who feel stuck in their jobs, their companies becoming prisons which they live in. These employees have mouths to feed at home and mortgages to pay and if they do not have the relevant career agility to move on, they fall prey to poor management.

The savvy, young investing male, replete with market knowledge, can play a better game.

The playbook I propose should be as follows :

a) While in University aggressive play for the best grades. This is the Hunger Games, may the odds be ever in your favour.

b) Take on as many management roles in your CCAs you participate in. This is the most consistent way to score a big Bank or MNC position. You only want a bank, consulting firm, prestigious tech firm like Apple or Google or a DJIA counter business. ( This gives the best odds of 10% increments for first 10 years. )

c) Work overtime and aggressively save and invest with a target of $300,000 to ensure that you can live within your investment income. This may require a savings rate of 75%. ( Too bad, live as a undergraduate for the next 10 years. If you are lonely, sign up for a MOOC. My date in my late 20s was the CFA exams.  )

d) Date casually in your 20s, but start playing for keeps in your 30s. You are likely to hit your target in your mid-30s. Find someone who shares the same values as you.

e) Don't make a commitment to someone until you hit $300,000 in portfolio size. Odds are you will only get married around mid-thirties.

g) Start building your spouse's financial independence by channelling three incomes into her portfolio. ( Your's, her's and your portfolio's )

h) Once you are both free, have a kid and take on a mortgage. (This is starting to sound like a strategy for Starcraft II )

i) Work to clear your mortgage, kid expenses are not too large and you should be able to get the investment income to sustain a child before the kid gets into play-school on two incomes. ( Actually 4 incomes by now. )

j) Thanks to the power of compounding, you two will be able to reach the point where every expense can be paid via your investment income sometime before 45.

h) If you and your spouse feel like it, retire. Otherwise, enjoy your career.

The consequence of this alternative play-book is harsh - Don't accumulate $300,000, don't get married so naturally this is not something you'll see in government ads.

The problem is not so much being stuck with a lousy spouse but do you want to spend 10+ hours in a workplace and be miserable for 50% of your life ? $300,000 portfolio let's a single guy choose the workplace he wants.

The other advantage of this playbook is that many young males do not realize how attractive they become once they hit financial independence in their mid-30s. You are worldly and you've proven yourself in the corporate market.  Grabbing a young 27 year-old wife from a Gen-Y herbivore hipster is like grabbing a lollipop from a baby - Just remember to shout YOLO! while you are at it.

Old age and treachery will always overcome youth and speed.













Monday, December 09, 2013

Mechanics of Early Retirement.

It's amazing how your identity changes as you get older.

My pals used to introduce me to other people by describing me in certain ways as I was growing up, at some stage I was...

... The Dungeons and Dragons guy
... T$R Chris
...The Toastmaster.
... Chicken Man ( Urgggh... Long Story )
...The Troll.
..The Crazy Guy.
...Guai Peh Peh ( Strange uncle )

And my personal favourite...

...The dude who played with his cats testicles and has the scars to show for it.

These days, people introduce as the guy who's retiring next year and he's only 38 !

...and it's so challenging trying to explain myself because some folks would have all sorts of questions on what my secret is, or whether am I some variant of a phony attention seeker.

Anyway explaining what I did to have scars on my hands was a lot easier.

I thought maybe if I written a short article on my version of 'retirement', things may clear itself up.

The simplest way to look at retirement is from the point of view of a single dude who lives with his parents, has no debt, and manages to save $300,000 before 35.

This $300,000 is saved by earning a regular income at a day job. This dude works overtime and minimises his expenses by eating at food courts and taking public transport. He has no expensive hobbies and only has time to read about taking his career further or making more money by making a few investments.

Now, suppose this dude discovers a way to create a portfolio that generates a dividend yield of 8% a year. It's a combination of business trusts, REITs and mid cap equities which return high yields ( Please refer to other awesome local financial bloggers for actual investment ideas. )

8% of $300,000 is a dividend income of $24,000 a year or $2,000 a month. If this dude can keep his expenses within $2,000 a month, this dude can keep running forever without an earned income and can be considered to be financially independent way before 35 years of age.

But like all dudes, this dude may want to get married and have kids some day. So he marries someone with the same values and they work together to earn multiples of $300,000 to cover each person's expenses within the family. By a certain age, the dude might be able to cover his family expenses and pay for his mortgage using only his dividend income, maybe even saving a portion of it in the process.

At this stage, it is certainly possible for someone to retire based on the power of the raw passive income that they are getting every quarter.

But should they exercise this power and live happily ever after ?

I think the answer is no.

At 38, I'm not naive that there is a 100% chance  that this stage of retirement can be sustained. ( Actual odds are determined by a Monte Carlo simulation ) Even if my portfolio holds up, the boredom will probably kill me. At best, if I peg my odds, I should not need to touch my capital for perhaps 3-4 years, although rising interest rates can ruin my plan in the medium term.

But 3-4 years is just what it takes for a person to take stock of his life and decide to do something for his personal interest and passion.

And that is precisely my plan.

Retire for a couple of years, take stock of my life and then take it in a radically different direction.











Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Ground Zero - A new beginning...

It's been quite a while since my last article.

As of today, I resigned from my government job. My last day is 3rd January 2014.

For the first time in my life, I've resigned from my job without a solid plan on what I'm going to do next. It's a strangely liberating experience, and actually a little scary. I have never left a job without another one waiting for me. At the back of my head are lessons from Moshe Milevsky on the meaning of human capital - did I just write off millions of dollars of future income I would have earned had I kept my nose on the grind ?

Is this some time of mid-life crisis ?

In a sense, I've been hatching this plot for the past 15 years, trying to grow my annual investment income to that of the equivalent of a median household income in this country along with some spare change, about half of these investment flows get farmed back into the portfolio or the home mortgage, so I guess the mathematical part of the retirement equation has been solved.

What remains unresolved is the humanities component of my retirement plan. Too many books focus on the nuts and bolts of retirement. Some focus on hobbies, others on philanthropy.

But too few focus on living a meaningful life - how to extract the most of your time and how to engage your friends who may still be busy building up their families and wealth.

I have about 20 working days before lose my earned income for quite a while. Maybe this retirement will be short-lived,  maybe I'll sustain it until I die of old age. Right now I have exercised many options, applied to many institutions to pick up many skills to keep myself occupied so I don't go cold turkey in 2014. The plan is to have no plan, or perhaps, the plan is to have too many plans that arise out of spontaneity. I'm betting that a semblance of Order would arise out of Chaos.

But one things for sure...

For now, when people ask me what I am doing or what I intend to do next year, my answer is "I don't know."




Monday, October 08, 2012

Some very disturbing aspects of how NTUC treated the Amy Cheong case.

First of all, I was very disturbed and upset with what Amy Cheong said. As a former Assistant Director in NTUC-ARU myself, this case really hurt because I had to brace myself for questions which may come from Malay friends and colleagues who may ask me what she was like, etc.

Personally, this case should be closed, the mobs on the Internet got what they wanted, they should be happy. Today was a good day for racial harmony, all races united to condemn Amy's comments on FB.

But for current and former employees of NTUC, many concerns remain.

After Amy was sacked, I realised that this raises more questions about my former organization's practices.

Almost all employees in NTUC-ARU are encouraged to take up Union membership. In fact, I'm still a member. I pay $9 a month to be part of the Unions.

While most enjoy membership benefits in the form of link points, being a Union member entitles you to workplace representation.

If you follow the timeframe in which Amy posted her offensive comments and the time she was sacked in the news, this begs the questions of whether the Unions had a chance to step in to negotiate the terms of her punishment with NTUC management.

Kong Hee, Ng Boon Gay and even T T Durai had trials and a fair opportunity to defend themselves.

This looks like a bad case of a knee jerk reaction.

NTUC's ultimate role is to defend workers from their employers.

I was shocked and dismayed that there was no visible attempt to at least intercede on behalf of fair play. Amy may be wrong but can the punishment be lightened in light of her Union membership. More disturbingly, can a Union step aside because it was politically correct to do so ?

I can certainly imagine how this can be better managed:

a) Secretary General Lim Swee Say suspends Amy Cheong with immediate effect today.
b) NTUC does a thorough investigation with HR over two weeks, lets cool heads prevail and determines that this is an offence that warrants termination.
c) Staff Union of NTUC or SUN intercedes on Amy's behalf, General Secretary of the Union (currently an ethnic Malay lady ) declares that they are against racism but is is open to forgive the perpetrator. SUN lobbies to downgrade the punishment.
d) Amy gets demoted and volunteers 100 man-days of service to the Malay Community.
e) After serving time, Amy speaks of her experiences and how wrong and remorseful she was.
e) Everybody comes together to celebrate how well the affair was handled and how a crisis becomes a teachable moment for forgiveness and remorse.

While it's right to punish someone for racism,  the punishment must fit the crime and justice needs its due process. With authorities rushing to condemn a wrongdoing and pandering to mob rule, we should not forget that someone's livelihood has been permanently destroyed over a private comment in a facebook page. Should we even start going after members of the mob who used this opportunity to make some racist statements of their own ?

I could think of some political figures who have done much worse and was given way better treatment for it.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Price to pay for financial independence.

A message that will definitely go into my next book on Personal Finance is to list out the price to pay for financial independence. It gives the young reader an idea of what sacrifice must be made to become financial independent in their 30s, it also explains why many people in their 40s struggle so hard to pay bills and yet a minority will just cruise comfortably in their forties with hardly a gripe.

Let's start with something simple first :

a) Can you forgo consumption in your fabulous twenties.

To me this is the cheapest price to pay. Your twenties is the time you can take the most punishment from the corporate world with almost no dependents. You can take on 16 hour management consulting or investment banking jobs to accumulate your wealth. There is also little need to consume - gadgets get better with time anyway.

Most investment books just talk about about point (a). If it's that simple, there would be a lot more millionaires in Singapore today.

I think my book will go further than that :

b) Are you willing to be disagreeable and have people hate your guts for it ?

This is something many people are unwilling to do. An agreeable person can cruise along in life with little strife. Type B folks live longer and lower incidences of heart disease.

A disagreeable person, on the other hand, can tell a close relative to fuck off when they try to sell them a whole life insurance plan or their childhood friend to fuck themselves when they into MLM. A disagreeable person can bulldoze their way through work and get the lazy social loafers to complete their projects in time. Overtime, disagreeable executives do better in the corporate world and earn more throughout their lifetime.

c) Are you willing to delay major milestones like marriage and children and risk it never happening ?

Your wealth needs to compound early to make a difference to your quality of life in your forties, an early marriage is a huge financial burden in your twenties and children make it worse. This effect is even worse for women, who have a strong financial incentive to stay single as it increases their income even more.

As I still believe in family, but this is a heavy price to pay if you, like most people, do want to settle down eventually. Even as a man, you may find yourself unable to pro-create when you finally get financial independent if you insist on this limitation too much.

d) Can you cope with an existential vacuum in your forties ?

I am beginning to really understand that price to pay as I near my forties. One side-effect of reaching financial independence early and going through the practice is that it turns me into an ascetic that's not excited about many things.

Car don't really excite me as much as watching a sunset, and I only need a few gadgets to keep in touch with the financial markets. I read some books on marketing to men to see if I can spend my money on more things but all it does is turn me off consumption even more.

The only thing which makes me happy theses days are experiences and my relationships but I can't travel much with a toddler around the house. I can't eat well because it will ruin my blood sugar control.

This ironically makes retirement a very scary idea because I need to figure out how to maintain the "flow" I get in my current public service job.

Maybe one day, I will devote more time to philosophy and become a social entrepreneur. That time will come after I make my contribution to Government service and round up my career in Singapore.

Financial Independence is a battle for your very soul

Financial independence can be a nasty battle for your soul. A decision to get ahead at work may cause you to reframe your colleagues as rivals. Accumulation of more assets can cause you to delay building many meaningful relationships in life. And one day, after you have it all, you need to fight to make your life more meaningful before that inevitable exit.

I knew the price I paid, question is which decision will you take ?





Sunday, August 05, 2012

The difference that makes the difference.

This article in an attempt to distil some of my personal experience into something useful for readers.

Since I was an undergraduate, I was never really able to excel in a core initiative. I'm going to share three experiences and then try to see if it's possible to turn them into teachable moments.

a) My stint in the Information Olympiad squad.

I spent a brief time training in Singapore's first squad that took part  in the Informatics Olympiad in 1992. In the selection phase, I was chosen not because I was good in programming but I was able to grasp the concept of a Graph algorithm and explain to the judge without knowing a god-damn thing about the augmented matrices that makes the algorithm work. Even my lecturer's in NJC was surprised I was chosen, because I always had the gift of the gab, my programming was good but not great.

Needless to say I was not chosen to actually represent Singapore, but I was able to participate in the training in NUS which was useful to my stint later as an Electrical engineering student.

b) My journey as an electrical engineering student.

I was slightly above average as an engineering student, I remember my final year as a pretty smooth year for me, I even managed to hit on some girls during that time. One class-mate commented that my most powerful advantage was my public speaking skills which I leveraged to get a string of As in all my communications modules and ultimately my final year project. Being in the Dean's list in semester 8 is traditionally hard because that's the time the hostelites stop drinking and start waking up the fact that they are close to graduation.

I was also able to get a decent ECA record which most engineers have problems doing, which paved way to being accepted in P&G when I graduated. ( P&G was into extroverted folks with a high openness to new experiences in those days. )

c) My work experiences

I spent most of my time in the working world scoring IT qualifications. It was crazy, some years I did 21 exams while holding a full-time job. What I observed is that my qualifications did not help me much, I was quite loyal to the MNCs I worked for and never could achieve good increments when I changed jobs. I explained my strategy to an fellow French student that I was buying a lot of call options on the IT industry. She felt I was being ridiculous. Now I agree with her since most of my options expired worthless.

Most of extra income came from my investments. These days about half of my take home pay is through dividends. My three years slogging for the CFA paid off in the size of my portfolio today. I did'nt even need to leave the IT industry in the end.

Moral of the Story


I think that something my generation failed to understand about success.

Very often, if you focus on one area of specialization, odds of you getting to the top 1% of your field is very hard. It's also very taxing for your sanity.

If you are able to find an alternative specialization and find a way to resolve your current life challenges, life will be a lot easier. My speaking skills in school help me out more than my ability in physics.

This is what I think is possible for most people :

a) You need to be good at your core specialization.

You still need to be competent at your core. If you are an engineer, you need to be able to do ok at your day job. It's a condition to be minimally employed.

b) Find something you like to do and be good at it in your spare time.

I realized that a secondary skill that is related to the following fields will always pay off and make you more useful to your company or business :

  • Communications and Language
  • Investing, finance or economics.
  • Psychology or culture.
c) Develop your secondary speciality and use it to reinforce your core.

This suggestion is neither a appeal for specialization or generalization of skills. You need to cultivate a secondary skill and keep leveraging that skill to reinforce your core. This creates a something unique that only you can do well.

Next steps  


As my next career is in public service, odds are I will need to be able to find a new secondary skill to reinforce my core. I'm looking at the TESOL to reinforce my language skills so that I can write better papers at my job. Of course, getting to the level as an English instructor as a lot of other benefits as it strengthens my writing skills.





Friday, June 29, 2012

Megachurches rise because meritocracies are inadequate.


I don't want to talk about City Harvest or Kong Hee. The law would take care of him if he is found guilty.

Instead, I want to share some ideas about religious organizations and Singapore society.

a) A religion is a great complement to a meritocracy !

Religions are great institutions in a meritocracy.

Worshippers tithe part of their income, in effect, raising their own taxes. In return, disadvantaged fellows get some help and everyone gets to participate in activities which improve their well-being.

A megachurch, in effect, becomes a microcosm for self-selected citizens to choose a Socialist lifestyle without interfering in politics. In badly-run regimes, religions may be even more well organized than the government, so it's actually more worthwhile to support religion than the state. Case in point, you don't see a lot of megachurches flourish in socialist Europe, especially in Germany where Christians actually pay religious taxes.

b) It's not about the Gospel of Prosperity. It's about coping with failure, inadequacy and mediocrity.

If you accept this point, megachurch go-ers probably do not go to their church to be rich. They go there for fellowship, trading their financial currency for spiritual currency and well-being. Meritocracies are harsh, failures are attributed to the individual. In meritocracies, people need to come together to build socialist bubbles to not lose their sanity.

People convert because they are vulnerable and hurt. The family and state refuses to spend resources to provide any form of consolation. People generally don't intellectualize themselves to pick up a faith, you're either born to it, or suffered so much you turn to them for help.

Besides, it does'nt make sense for money-mad people to give up their salaries just because someone says so. And having written three books with the word Prosperity in it, I have yet to encounter a single worshipper. It can't be just about money.

Now if you agree with me, there may be consequence for all of us here in Singapore.

First, there will always be groups like our megachurches in Singapore while we make our beds with meritocracy, pragmatism and capitalism. CHC is only a hint of more to come. Hundreds more "entrepastors" will be waiting for their turn. Some will preach Christianity, others will appeal to the Buddhists, many will go MLM or Internet Marketing.

Second, this socialist bubble is vital to keep status quo for strong right winged governments.

We can do well if we take three steps :

 - Governance function for an organization must consist only of people of different faiths. This ensures that entity cannot trade spiritual currency with the people who do the governance. It also leverages on our multi-religious society. Churches should be scrutinized by Buddhists, Hindus and Muslims. Temples should be audited by Christians. Mutual respect with prudent governance.

- Forbid religious bodies from taking on donations from anyone below 21. Faith is no child's play. Forbidding donations will cause religious leaders from preying on young impressionable minds.

- Do not allow a church or following to exceed 10,000 in size. This is pragmatic, by keeping organizations small, we will prevent a situation where organizations use political force to swing opinion. WE got luck CHC has only a Cultural Mandate. One day, an organization will grow a Political Mandate instead.

Sunday, May 06, 2012

A slave with two masters is a free man.

Some ideas have more power than others.

A statement very similar like the above can be found in the Bible Book of Matthews where worshippers are told that they cannot serve two masters and must choose between Money and God.

Closer to home, I was first exposed to this statement in my first job P&G. It was then, as part of corporate myth that the Father of Management Peter Drucker took one look at P&G's corporate structure and declared that a slave with two masters is a free man.

Drucker was concerned about the rise in popularity of matrix structures, where every resource had a solid line to an administrative manager and a horizontal dotted line to a functional manager or project manager. This allowed the resource to game one reporting manager against another.

Suppose the resource has job A and did not perform up to task, the resource can claim that his time was spent doing job B. This can be a logistical nightmare for managers, for each other manager a resource had to be shared with, some expectations need to be clearly spelled out with each counter-party. Give an organization time and it grows top heavy from the relentless load managers need to account for their resources.

This is the reason why as a manager, I am not a big fan of sharing resources.

Anyway, just last Friday, I had to leave slightly early to pick my daughter up and a colleague joked that I am leaving early because I am now a slave to two masters and therefore a free man. The reference was made because I'm serving my notice and have another job waiting for me.

Well he might be right but this turned out to be quite a teachable moment because I suddenly had an insight about investing and work.

I have a line of income from my job that my family can live on.

I have a line of income from my investments and real estate that my family can live on as well.

My capital gains this year alone, is about the same my annual income from my work.

Investor-employees, therefore are under the payroll of many masters at the same time.

If they choose wisely, they can be free men.

Of course, work is more than a paycheck for me, it's a place to build accomplishments and a great way to be engaged in meaningful activity.


Saturday, April 28, 2012

About iron rice bowls and paper plates.

This is a short article. I have a discussion with a friend about careers today and we were talking about the differences between the public sector and private sector.

Now most folks from the private sector have a tendency to scoff at government or quasi-government bodies because of the impression that no work really gets done in these organizations, staff are jiak liao bee because they're protected by the iron rice bowl syndrome.

As someone who spent a decade in the private sector before deciding to look for more work life balance, I have a different perspective.

Public organizations and NGOs do a lot of back-breaking work. Results also take time to show itself  because of the intense amount of paperwork to push a proposal through. It's also important that decisions involving money are above-board and not compromised by a sexy IT sales manager, so a lot of pains have to be taken to provide a paper trail.  The other challenge is that it is a lot a harder to justify something without a simple ROI or IRR model that the private sector works by.

The other reality is that these organizations cannot hire and fire at will because of the political pressure from the electorate, so much work is required to outplace a non-productive worker, it's simply easier to tolerate them and give them work that provides less value add. Overtime, managers end up with a large contingent of such workers who cannot work for any other organization other than the ones they are stuck at.

Which brings me back to managing people in NGOs and government organizations.

While an iron rice-bowl may be the envy of the private sector. Never forget that we do not actually eat rice-bowls. We eat what's actually inside it.

If you have an iron rice bowl but report to a terrible manager, that's the equivalent of someone sprinkling dog food into your next meal. Your bowl will not break, but it's not exactly something that you want to eat for the rest of your career.

While a paper plate may not last many meals, a good careerist can always always walk around with some steak and foie gras on it. It the plate gets ruined, as it always happens because some kind of restructuring is just around the corner, just ensure that you know where to get the next paper plate.

A smart careerist can make do with an iron rice-bowl, ceramic plate or even a paper cup. The important thing is to manage your resume and experience, so that you will always have some caviar, champagne and foie gras to go with each party you attend to.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Singapore dollar - Bane of Online Entrepreneurs.

MAS is taking a policy of strengthening the Singapore dollar to fight inflation. This means that if you run a web business and earn in US dollars, you're very likely to experience a downwards swing in earnings if you convert it back to Singapore dollars.

This reflects one of the many uncertainties of running an online business.

At first, these so called entrepreneurs think that they can earn in USD and spend in SGD, the underestimate the power of Singaporeans who are more than happy to save for their future and strengthen their currency in the future.

 Of course, a smart online entrepreneur can do better if they bring geo-arbitrage to it's ultimate logical conclusion.

 It is definitely possible for a Singaporean with a savings of about $20,000 to settle down comfortably in a place like Thailand and pay minimal rent to see through their online businesses.

 Here's a dream combination if you are single and have weak family ties :

 a) Invest in SGD 

I can't emphasize enough that our low tax regime makes investing in SGD real estate assets an almost sure winner. Some REITs continue to yield over 8% and does not generate any taxes beyond the first 18% deducted at the company level.

b) Spend in MYR/THB

 Find a place to stay where the cost of living is about 40% less than Singapore. Johore Bahru and Phuket comes into mind but you need to blend in with the locals so that you will not be singled out by criminals.

c) Work and earn in Dubai or Aussie dollar. 

 IMHO, the best places to work should be friendly to foreigners and have a lot of natural resources such that the currency has a strong correlation with gold/oil.

So the best combination out there is probably some Malaysian Dude with a Singaporean PR who invests in the Singapore markets, works in an oil company and now stationed in Abi Dhabi and has a family in palatial mansion in Johore Bahru.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

My American Pie Reunion Epiphany.

Some people are touched by great movie epics like The Titanic or Chariot's of Fire.

I have a much lower taste. The movie that affected me a lot lately and touched my heart was American Pie Reunion. It attempted to answer one of the key questions I've been asking myself for the past decade.

Looking at my University classmates, I witnessed so much youthful exuberance and promise, I started to wonder years ago what would they be like as working adults. Would they be the hotshots in our generation, or would they fade into the background like the working folks I saw 10 years ago.

American pie is a work of fiction, but is as a mirror of the real world, it worked because it reflected the inner world of generation X that is fast approaching an explosive mid-life crisis of its own.

Here's some insight I picked up from the movie :

a) There is an inherent dissatisfaction with married life after kids.

As a father of a 1 year old, I'm beginning to see that making a choice for a stable family life has it pitfalls. While it gives security, it takes away variety. The key to making it is contentment. The movie is almost a tragedy for Jason's family because the couple was not content with their family life.

b) It does not pay to be a romantic or a Chinese poet.

The most tragic character in the movie is Evan. He parallels the Chinese poets in NUS ten years ago, you know the stable, boring unimaginative types that come from Chinese medium schools who aim to start a family at a young age. Evan is stupid enough to wish that he would be with Vicki when when he was at high school. In the end, he had to let Vicki go.

It was heartbreaking even for someone like me to see a nice guy fail like this.

c) Overextension has its pitfalls.

Ostreicher would have been the fly-boy of my generation because he turned out to be a celebrity. Closest thing to Ostreicher would be someone like Adam Khoo. But unlike Adam Khoo, Ostreicher made an ass out of himself in a reality show and had to be humiliated during his class reunion.

I have the most respect for Ostericher because at least he's somebody. But it's so ironic that he wished for a stable family life when he was in high school.

d) The most interesting guy turned out to be a liar.

The most pathetic character was also my favourite in previous American Pie movies. Finch was someone with a stable job who disrespected his secure and predictable life. After being denied a raise, he stole his boss's bike and made tall tales about his adventures around the world with his closest friends.

These days I see so many of my peers from NUS giving themselves fancy titles like Social Media expert ( like it's possible to even be an expert in social media ) who claims to do some charity work on the fly.

e) The asshole wins !

The funny thing is that Stiffler won the game of life in the movie. He's the only dude with the simple dream of rocking with his friends ten years down the road. Because he was authentic and never had a second thought about being a lovable jerk, he was the only guy rewarded with self-actualization at the end of the movie.

American Pie is a great movie for Generation X. Gags aside, it chronicles how lives can go so wrong from where it begins in campus. The jury is still out on how my life turned out, my unnatural fascination with my financial independence is slowly bearing fruit but it comes at a huge expense of my blood sugar control.

But one things for sure, growing up and having a well-adjusted midlife has a lot to do with understanding your limitations, loving your family and accepting your mediocre status in society today.

It takes a movie like American Pie Reunion to remind us of these things.

Friday, April 06, 2012

HDB resale or car ? Which is the better investment in Q1 2012 ?

Recently an article mentioned a 0.6 percent increase in HDB prices while private properties have fallen. At the surface level, some HDB buyers may be feeling a little smug. They took in smaller losses than the folks who bought a condominium.

If you look at the projected inflation rate in 2012 which is expected to come at 4.5%, a 0.6% increase is way less than the inflation rate in Q1 2012. Comparing HDB prices to equities which have risen over 10% in Q1 2012, it's pretty clear which asset class is likely to be the winner in Q1 2012. In fact, a 1.6 litre second-hand car would have performed better as an investment in Q1 2012. COEs went from $46,889 to $58,501 through Q1 this year.

Here's some considerations for folks who intend to get wealthy by property ownership :

a) Rental yields of residential properties are pathetic.

Rental yields of residential properties straddle around 2-4% in Singapore. You are better off looking for industrial or commercial property if you are looking for yields.

b) This leaves capital gains which does not look good in the medium term.

By cutting down on foreigners, Singapore should look to less demand on resale flats. Making matters worse, HDB is expecting to ramp up the development of BTO flats for second timers in Singapore. Without any personal expertise in property, with shrinking demand and increasing supply, it does not take a genius to figure out that HDB flat prices will generate negative real returns.

( Note that politically I doubt the government will allow prices to decline, but having a n increase below the rate of inflation is one way of easing prices without a political backlash, hence I'm betting Q2-Q4 of 2012 to have similar results. )

Here's a better way of thinking about property:

a) Buy a flat or condo only if you need to stay in one.

Don't make your assets multi-task. Buy insurance for protection, equities for investment gains and a HDB to stay in. The moment you think that you are Warren Buffett's second incarnation if you own a resale flat, you will be expecting a disappointment pretty soon.

b) If you really think that you are some property punter, then get a good location.

Personally, if your unit is within 10 minutes of an MRT, your HDB may outperform the others. There is a psychological reason for this - Commuting ranks as one of the most unpleasant moment's in a person's working day, once people realise this, flats in a good location will become more expensive relative to a larger unit at inaccessible places.

Of course, some locations start out bad but future developments can make things better.

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Which is better, higher monthly income or higher bonuses ?

Thought I'd share something with blog readers because I'm pretty surprised some people actually may not be able to to understand this concept and may make serious career mistakes in their lives.

Suppose your income is $120,000 a year. You have a choice between getting it over 12 pay-checks at $10,000 a month or getting getting it over 15 pay-checks of $8,000 with 3 month bonus for average performers.

Intuitively, the former the pay scheme is a superior one. Reasons can be very valid, a monthly income of $10,000 is useful for negotiating salary for subsequent jobs. You also get more money earlier on throughout the year which allows you to farm your money into investments earlier. There is also little pressure to perform at work as salaries are fixed.

Actually, if you offer me a choice of two pay schemes, I'd actually choose the latter.

Here's why:

a) CPF contribution caps are higher with the latter scheme.

One of the funny things about the CPF program is that the employer will contribute CPF up to $5,000 month. This means that you only pay CPF for up to $60,000 a year for your monthly income.

However, the CPF board has an Additional Wage Ceiling of $25,000 which allows an employee to contribute part of their bonuses to the CPF program with the appropriate matching from your employer.

This means that the former pay-scheme, your employer pays CPF up to $60,000 of your income but in the latter payment scheme, your employer has to match up to $84,000 of your income.

Many HR departments in Singapore have saved a lot of money by offering to pay their employees based on a 12 month fixed scheme instead of paying them bonuses. Employees happily accept those terms because it's more cash in hand and the program was touted as being income neutral. In actual fact, the employer is creating huge savings for themselves by contributing less to employee CPF.

b) The problem of higher taxes.

In many cases, when employees get more money, their contribution to CPF drops which means that more income becomes taxable. This actually means more money paid to the government.

To prevent manipulation and gaming of the CPF system, we will be better off simply setting the ceiling to be indifferent to whether the income is normal monthly income or bonus income. Simply limit a year of income matching to $85,000 regardless of the nature of the income for each employee.

This way companies cannot exploit workers by switching to a 12 month payment program and declaring that the switch is income neutral.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Transformation is easier said than done in Singapore.

As I inch closer and closer to my target retirement number, one challenge which I look forward to is the possibly of semi-retirement. In Singapore especially, this is not very easy because of two phenomenon which I observe.

a) Employed workers find it easier to get new jobs than unemployed workers.

I got this through third parties with close access to HR departments of MNCs and SMEs. One paradox which we need to contend with in Singapore is that while you have a job, it's easier to get another employer to talk to you. But if you are without a job, HR departments will wonder if you are the type of worker that can withstand a Singaporean workplace.

This makes it really hard to transition to semi-retirement. If you even need to stop work to perform a life audit, you make it harder to find a job which suits your personality more.

It also means that Gen-X workers as they hit their 40s will be more willing to tolerate obnoxious bosses to survive Singapore society.

b) The conundrum of real estate being affordable only to those with CPF.

One possibility for people who want semi-retirement is to start a "lifestyle start-up". This means I start a business that suits my life aspirations instead of a traditional start-up which is all about revenue growth, VC funding and burn-rate.

The problem with this approach is the problem of CPF. For folks with a 35+ year mortgage on a condominium, with a steady job being employed with a company, the monthly payments will hardly eat into your standard of living, but once you stop making CPF contributions and need to fund your mortgage using cash, a large chunk of your income gets eaten up from your home. For folks who have maxed out their Medisave, you may need to foot at least $1,400 extra every month to pay off your condominium loan.

This is consistent with the findings of Property Guru. HDB viciously attacked the study and used CPF as a defense but it's hard to refute the argument that our flats are expensive for folks who do not have CPF. This means the business owners and some free-lancers.

How this makes mid-life career shifts very challenging in Singapore. While I have some time before I need to address this, here are my suggestions:

a) Your passive income needs to cover your mortgage payments.

At my current passive income per month, I find that I have to keep on working in spite of being able to save a portion of my monthly dividends to make further investments every quarter. This is because I will need to address my upcoming Condo payments in 2014 which is largely coming in from my CPF payments if I stay employed. At 8% yields, it means another $200,000 savings which I need to accumulate over the years.

The good news of using passive income to cover Condo payments is that the amount is not expensed but goes into your equity section of your balance sheet.

b) Your time after office hours has to invested in self-reflection.

I think we Gen-X folks secretly envies the Strawberry generation. Without a family or debt commitments, Gen-Y is changing the workplace by being irresponsible and flippant, but I think in time Gen-X will be a beneficiary of this revolution.

Gen-X needs to spend their time after office hours to inventories their hobbies and ask themselves what kind of work they can engage in as a lifestyle choice. They need to push this agenda while holding full-time jobs and only transition after their passive income hits a reasonable level.

The challenge in Singapore is that you seldom can try a lifestyle before you buy it, some money needs to be spent on courses to simulate the new working environment.

While it is certainly tempting to "flip table" and quit, note that we have very close-minded employers and you are better off quietly interviewing instead.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

A millionaire may not be able to afford to buy an executive condominium.

There are many scenarios painted where someone who makes $1,000 can afford a flat of his own. I'm going to paint a scenario that illustrates an opposing point of view.

Suppose you have $750,000 in cash assets and $250,000 in CPF making you a millionaire, your family expenses is $4,000 a month and you proceed to buy a condominium. The monthly payment for a condominium is about $2,500. ( $850,000 condo at 2% interest over 30 years )

If you can invest your $750,000 at 8% investment income a year, this means $60,000 a year or $5,000 a month in dividends.

What this means is that you have an monthly expense of $6,500 but an incoming dividend flow of only $5,000. You will need to work to make up the short-fall, otherwise you lose your millionaire status.

The illustrates the flip side of the wealth equation. While 20% of Singaporeans have a net asset base over a million dollars creating so much unhappiness over the rich-poor divide, I believe that in truth, many Singaporean millionaires have to wake up every morning and worry about how to make a living and actually do spend many years kowtowing to a boss because they bought into that Singaporean dream for condominium ownership. Of course, this can be made even worse if such a person has a car to pay off and tuition fees to pay.

So, next time someone talks about the $850 man who can afford to have a flat of his own, tell him the story of the millionaire who came to the conclusion that he actually can't afford an executive condominium from HDB.

Anyone can create any scenario to support his agenda.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

If we are labelled dogs, let's become pit-bulls and not poodles !

Baey Yam Keng's idea that scholarships should be based on meritocracy and not nationality is not completely wrong, but that should only be lauded if the students with the best results do get the scholarships in the first place.

I got myself my First Class in Engineering from NUS over a decade ago, the very same faculty as this Sun Xu person. I would dare say then that most of us who got a 1st Class in those days were Singaporeans. But I would also venture to say that most of us had to pay off our school fees just like everyone else. This, for me, means skipping out on my bonuses for at least the first two years of my working life.

Even if we do make our beds with Meritocracy, PAP has a lot to explain to the Gen-Xers who did time in NS, did ok in University and regularly pay our taxes today why we are investing $175,000 per head in a batch of student who have 55% chance of getting a second lower than before.

It's not good mathematics, it's not good finance and certainly bad politics.

Here's some people whom I believe, deserve a scholarship more than the likes of Sun Xu or even someone who gets a 1st Class in Engineering ( believe me, we can look after ourselves and our children.)

a) Why not give a scholarship for the ITE grad that makes it to Polytechnic part-time.

I have a very capable colleague who studied in ITE. He spent 5 years on his diploma while holding a job at the same time. I don't remember anyone in my cohort who scored a 1st class with that kind of world-class grit. Quite a number of Singaporeans go through this system which in actually a time-tax on people who may potentially be late bloomers.

Note : I'm not asking the government to give more seats to ITE students in a polytechnic, but their numbers should be sufficiently small enough for us to make a decision to let them study for free or at least with 80% subsidies if they serve NS.

b) Why not make studying cheaper for diploma holders to get a degree in NUS/NTU.

I'm not in the engineering field, never was and never will be. I prefer to use my logical reasoning to analyse stocks, calculate real estate yields and help motivate my friends to find spouses.

The loyal engineers who still do technical work today generally have polytechnic diplomas. The more more technical ones tend to do a Bachelor in Technology as a part time course because they need to apply these skills at work.

An investment in these guys keeps our manufacturing and electrical sector competitive.

From another POV, can NUS/NTU reimburse engineers who stick in the engineering field for at least 8 years ?

c) Pay people to drop-out of NUS/NTU.

This has been experimented very aggressively in the US. Degrees, even engineering ones, are primarily used for signalling to potential employers a person's worth. Very few degree programs impart actual workplace skills. This means that folks in a degree program who are getting good grades may not actually need a degree to do well in life.

We need more entrepreneurs to open up new markets. A panel of businessmen in collaboration with the NUS Business school should form a fund to pay out $100,000 to about 3-4 students with a solid business idea as seed funding. The caveat is that they need are to drop out immediately and not apply for a degree program for the next 4 years.

Anyway, I like to end by talking about dogs.

My parents used to own a pet shop at Shaw Centre. I'm ok with dogs and it's not really an insult to if someone calls me a dog. I would take grave offense if someone calls me a poodle, because its an elitist breed that needs constant grooming.

I think if PRC scum bag calls you a dog. Go show them what a pit-bull you can be.

Make sure that when you bite, you don't let go.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Cynicism sucks ! Introducing Cynicism 2.0.

One of the things I observed after all these years is that cynicism sucks !

Cynical people achieve less in life, or perhaps go on to achieve less in life. Cynical people spend a ridiculous amount of effort to destroy a good idea when less effort can be spent to make the idea work.

I'm surrounded by cynics. Over the years, I changed the way I deal with them. Cynical people can be a great source of motivation as there is nothing more satisfying that showing a cynic that something can be done and that success is possible.

One of things I set out to do when I started studying Psychology intensely is to break down Cynicism into it's residual components using the Big 5 personality model and one of the things I discovered is that Cynicism is really a blend of the Neurotic and Disagreeable personality traits. With this discovery, I believe that the idea that cynics are also losers gain considerable traction.

Neurotic people are scientifically proven to make horrible spouses. Too much of it also causes a person to self-handicap and only set out to do something only if it is guaranteed to succeed. If a neurotic person is also disagreeable, you have this perfect storm of a pure vortex of an evil person, putting down others, not being able to accept criticism and destroying the self-esteem of their loved ones.

Definitely not a combination that inspires success or achievement.

Instead I offer an alternative to Cynicism.

Cynicism 2.0 is an active life philosophy where you become cynical about cynicism. If cynics are emotional vampires, you become Van Helsing. You seek out cynics, get to know them and then break them with your willpower.

Here are some ideas on the foundations of Cynicism 2.0.

a) Collect Cynics as a source of motivation.

We lack nurturing souls in our lives. For most people, only mum can be nurturing towards you. Cynics however, are a dime a dozen. Urban survival dictates that cynics become a fuel for one's personal success.

To use the cynics in your life, you must adopt the maxim that if it can't be done by a cynic, it CAN BE DONE ! In fact, it must be done.

The look on a cynics face will be priceless !

b) Be ruthlessly empirical.

A neurotic and disagreeable person will pour cold water against any idea even before an actual field test. One tactic is to react with ruthless empiricism. Force the cynic to produce evidence, if the cynics mirrors your move, proceed to make the idea work. If anything, the cynic would have given you some advice on what to avoid to make your idea work so don't waste it.

Next time you meet a cynic and he gives you grief. Ask them this : Show me your KPI. What are your numbers ? Have you done it yourself ?

c) Say and deliver

This is the hardest part about dealing with a cynic and consistent use can break him. When you encounter someone who attacks an idea, say how it can be done and what resources you will employ to do it. Then go ahead and do it.

This requires a lot of discipline on your part. For one thing, you can only defend a strong idea with actual execution.

Cynicism 2.0 allows ordinary people to create a self-help system that harnesses the cynical people in their lives, you will find yourself setting disciplined goals and visualizing the path to success when faced with disagreement.

The joy of breaking a cynic is also personally satisfying as you build your self-esteem on top of their broken dreams.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

It's already Valentine's Day ! Loneliness 2.0

Ok, it's already Valentine's day.

If you liked my series, good. If you tried your best to make full use of it, but still did not get any progress, better luck next year.

This article is really popular today all over Facebook.

Loneliness 2.0 Article

Ok, so the article is'nt really entitled Loneliness 2.0 but it's high time singles reframe singlehood into something as positive as what the article does. Modern technology and cheap air travel on Chinese New Year is making singlehood more bearable these days.

Which brings me to my final point this Love season of 2012.

I doubt many readers are Agreeable, Conscientious and Emotionally Stable. Even if you are, you might even be drinking from the deadly fountain of Introversion and Closeness to New Experiences, making you immensely BORING and fit only to go to Sovnguard to kill Alduin.

On top of all this, society's problem is that the Beast of Singlehood is really growing in strength and power these days and amplified by social media.

If you find a hot cougar and fail to understand why she's single, be very careful, she's much harder to score than what she looks simply because your love rival is not a living breathing man but very possibly the Beast of Singlehood itself.

The Beast of Singlehood is the most seductive creature known to man and woman today. It means unlimited travel, unlimited control over financial resources, unlimited beer and unlimited shoes.

So, perhaps this Valentine's Day, take a good look at yourself, while you might even be better than the friends you hang out with, have more economic resources and a longer Placido Domingo, you need to convince that significant other that hanging out with you is way better than remaining single.

Until you can answer that question, you might to think about which class to play when Diablo 3 comes out in two month's time.

I'm going with Witchdoctor.