Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Thoughts on being a father a second time.



Last night, my son Durendal Ng Mun Khoi, was born. It was a happy day for me and my missus and right now, mother and son are doing well.

There is some excitement over why I chose such a strange name for my son. Durendal from what I gathered from the web is also a card in some collectible card game. If it is spelled Durandal, it's  the name of a kind of bomb which is used to penetrate airport runways. So on first inspection, it's quite a ferocious name.

For our case, Durendal is named after a holy sword wielded by an Ancient Frankish knight called Roland who served as one of the paladins under Charlemagne, the first Holy Roman Emperor and the founder of Carolingian empire in Western Europe. If you play a lot of RPGs, this is the origin of the Paladin class.

But more importantly, embedded in my son's name is the french verb "durer" which is "to endure" or "to last".

Most fathers can write about their hopes and dreams of their newborn son and how optimistic they are about the future. I have decided to take the opposite stance and share with readers the doubts I have about Singapore society that Durendal and his elder sister Clio ( who is named after the Muse of History ) would have to navigate in the future.

Naturally as a father, I will do everything in my power to help them thrive, but I doubt that the world that Durendal and Clio will live in would be better than ours.

The future of Singapore may not be lived by its citizens, it may have to be endured.

a) Children always revert to the mean through generations

Without even seeing my kids in school, I can sort of predict my children's IQ.

If a solid lawyer-doctor couple with 150 IQ each. Their kid's average IQ would not be 150 but 125 - The mean of father and mother's IQ then averaged against 100. That's why you may hear of ministers being somewhat disappointed with their progeny. It's actually built into our genetic code. Things always revert to the mean. Without even taking an IQ test, parents are better off assuming that their children are average and start planning for it.

And as it turns out, thing don't look bright for average Singaporeans.

b) Average is Over - Actually being average downright sucks !

I used to write about the three kinds of work following the ideas developed by Robert Reich over 10 years ago. Manufacturing, Service-oriented and Symbolic analytical work. Things will shift even more dramatically against manufacturing in the future. And services jobs are being automated even faster - we are not even sure if taxi drivers would even exist in 20 years time with driverless cars being tested right now. Worse, symbolic analysts are losing their jobs at a rapid rate because of huge paradigm shifts and the rise of artificial intelligence. Server support administrators used to be able to support 16 machines per head count with solid pay. These days, thousands of clustered virtual machines can run a business conglomerate in a cloud.

As of now, the sexiest jobs go to those who manipulate machines to manipulate symbols. Being a strong programmer is not enough, you need solid statistical skills and enough domain knowledge to solve business problems in your industry. Look at what Fintech is doing to our banks. It's only a matter of time that someone comes up with some sort of Lawtech to disrupt the legal industry  ( and if no one does, I am going to just do it myself. )

Perhaps only 1% of the human population can do the work required to manipulate these machines because they require so much logical and mathematical proficiency. After that, in order to succeed in solving a useful problem they must also achieve mastery in a business domain. Then you have to manage the different specialists at both ends, programmers and salesmen to accomplish your vision.

The average Singaporean cannot do this.

c) Educational pathway for the average Singaporean is still inadequate.

Average generally means someone who cannot qualify for a non-local degree. The 50th percentile would need to settle for a Polytechnic diploma. The good news is that while I was in charge of data.gov.sg, I was aware that the Government was already investing $1000 more a year on the Poly student compared to his or her JC counterparts. The question is whether the investment is bearing fruit for the Nation ?

From this very brutal but logical posting from Limpeh, the pathway for Poly graduates is not world class yet. Paying for a private degree will signal to gatekeeper that you are not good enough for a decent job and it costs a bomb compared to a local degree. But what Limpeh hints at is much darker. If a parent pays for private degree, the kid would go through it and thinking that they are superstars in their own degree programs, which really isn't as competitive as the course administrators claims to be, graduate with a sense of entitlement.

There are a lot of admirers for the German apprenticeship system. But the German economy has a network of Mittelstands or family-owned world-beating SMEs who can give craftsman a decent career.

We don't. We just have SMEs who want to stick their hands out and ask for government help to bring more foreign workers who can tolerate being underpaid and abused.

d) We are a yardstick society

Regardless of the well-meaning words of our politicians, Singapore has always been a yardstick society.

But it's not the government's fault.

If women continue to see men as a pillar for financial support, then the yardstick will always be about income and wealth. The men who are likely to start families with the most good looking women would always be the pilot, lawyer, doctor or accountant. Economic growth in Shanghai was rapid because Shanghainese women do not care whether you are short, tall, ugly or handsome. To get Shanghainese women to say yes,  give her an apartment. Even now China is expecting more than 5% growth in a horrific year.

The solution is not to get rid of the yardstick but finding space for different yardsticks.

And we did try that too ! Resulting in the DSA program which led to RI being shamed even though they remain an elite Tier 1 institution.

In Conclusion - What does it mean for baby Durendal ?

It means daddy may not bring you into a better world which was promised to daddy when he himself was born in.

We will not know whether you will become the sword of your father's ambition, but you must endure.

There is a genuine possibility of Peak Singapore - a point of prosperity which heralds a golden period for us and then it's downwards all the way. Problem is that we may have reached Peak Singapore 2 years ago.

But as of now these are the plans for my kids :

a) I spare my kids form enrichment classes except perhaps swimming and cycling. Kids need to play to develop their imagination. I had Dungeons and Dragons which defined a huge portion of my life.

b) Tuition money is invested into a portfolio to be compounded and released until they start working. My kids need to enjoy learning to  have hope of becoming the top 1% of knowledge workers. Tuition may not be best approach unless they reason with me that they need it but they need to learn independently. I will be personally very hands-on in this area as I expect to cover the Science and Arts subjects with ease by then.

c) If they cannot get into the JC track, they are expected to start work unless a local university admits them. If they are not academically inclined, why force them ? If my plan works, my kids would be able to tap into any online course material to pick up the skills they need.

d) They will all learn to manage money. Money management is where average folks have a great advantage over the sophisticated intellectuals. This is where there is plenty of evidence that active managers underperform passive ETFs.






















12 comments:

Richard Ng said...

Hi Chris,

Congrats once again! I am pretty sure your kiddos' future will not be as bleak as what you imagine lar... They are in good hands!

Jes said...

Hi Chris,

A silent reader here. Seeing that you have thought through so many things for your children and lowered your own expectations, I think they will definitely turn out to be much better than expected.

Congratulations and have fun with fatherhood!

Goh said...

Congratulations Christopher!
First time posting, but have enjoyed your writings for about a year so far. I read two of your books and most of the posts. BTW I used to pay D&D in the past (non advanced type).

I am interested in your comment that Singapore may be past its peak and its all downwards from now on. Could you elaborate more, perhaps when you have the time? (I know you are super busy now with 2nd child and all)

My investments are mainly in SG, so the future of SG is always a concern for me. Thanks!

sgshareinvestor ab said...

Congratulations! :)

SS said...

Congratulations on your newborn, Christopher!

talesteller said...

Christopher, congrats on the birth of your son! I share your worry about "Peak Singapore" and would like to read more about your thoughts in this area too.

P.S. I'm a software engineer working in legal tech. My company focuses on the US so far, but... Disruption is coming ;)

Christopher Ng Wai Chung said...

Thanks for all the well wishes !

I think the idea of "Peak Singapore" or "Peak Prosperity" demands more exploration in the near future. I will straighten my thoughts and share with everyone what I think over the weekend.

Jes,

I don't think I have lowered my expectations at all. I have only lowered my expectations for Singapore.

For my children, they will have to compete in a harsh society which will be trying to sort them out against other kids who also want the best for themselves. If they end up being average, then life is be very brutal for them.

Regards

Gerald said...

Hi Chris,

Congratulations! Like you, I also have a girl and boy. As parent, I also hope the best for my children's future but I guess we should let nature takes its course. More importantly, we must take good care of ourselves and not be a burden to them when we are old.

Regards,
Gerald
www.sgwealthbuilder.com

Tacomob said...

Hey Chris,

Congratulations on completing your family (you'd better stop at two kids; I speak from experience; just kidding).

I am convinced that you kids are having a headstart in this competitive place. Simply because they have you as their father (and you are not average!). With your all-rounded broad knowledge you certainly do know what to emphasize on to prepare them for finding their individual niche to be successful in.

Actually Singapore is just one small city-state and an outstanding home-base to be successful in the world. With modern technology the world is our market and there will always be countries with much better prospects than Singapore. We just have to remain flexible and be equipped with the right character traits to sniff out those opportunities. Your kids will get that from you.

Christopher Ng Wai Chung said...

Gerald,

I guess at this stage of my life, I would not even dare to say that I would not need my kids to look after me next time. Finance is a fickle field to be in.

Regards

Tacomob,

It is pretty clear that everyone is interested in the idea of Peak Singapore and you have hit the nail in the head. If we need to plan for our kids, knowledge of Peak Singapore is not enough, we need to identify a place to move to which would accept the talents of our children.

Globalization is a double-edged sword. If Singapore makes it hard for Singaporeans, then Singaporeans will simply find a better place to be.

Regards

John Smith said...

Congrats Chris!

Thanks very much for your writings. Have enjoyed them very much.

Ben said...

Hi Christopher,

Cograts on being a father once again. As the going gets tougher, the tough gets going.

Ben