Saturday, September 14, 2024

Letter to Batch 35 of the Early Retirement Masterclass


Dear Students of Batch 35,

It's been a great honour and privilege to conduct a 5-Day Early Retirement Workshop for you.

The markets have finally become bullish after a long wait since March 2022, and the community portfolio has begun to experience a remarkable recovery. I will not try to be too enthusiastic and rejoice too much; instead, I will let the market speak for itself. Still, we have repeatedly shown that this recovery is just the beginning and that there is plenty of equity risk premium for Singapore investors.

It should also be noted that this batch of students' portfolios is 7.28%. As the batch size is small, we have created a very focused portfolio consisting of 12 stocks. We have built a barbell-like structure that combines low-volatility investments with higher-risk instruments that produce double-digit yields.

This course has reached another milestone. Students are given practice sessions on using large language models to generate analyst reports. The community will receive samples of reports on BRC Asia and Kimly. The final investment decision incorporates analysis from both ChatGPT and brokerage houses.   

These automated investment reports still need to be improved further, but ERM is now poised to benefit from future improvements in artificial intelligence. I can confidently say that we are no longer tied to analyst reports from brokerage houses and can now generate reports on local stocks that are not covered by investment analysts.

Lastly, I hope Batch 35 will participate actively in the FB group. I look forward to seeing you at the following community seminar, which is slated for Q4 2024, having not done one for so long as we have been preparing to use LLMs in this programme.

Hope to see you then!

 

Christopher Ng Wai Chung

Friday, September 06, 2024

My Psychology of Spending

 


I've just completed Money on Your Mind by Vicky Reynal. It is one of the rare books that talks about money but does it from a completely different angle. The author is a financial psychotherapist, so she proposes that we look at our financial habits from a psychological perspective. Perhaps some kind of childhood trauma drove some of us to overspend or be overly stingy. 

The book had a very novel interpretation of Buffett's financial success. A common understanding of Buffett's fan base is that he got much of his economic acumen by modelling his father, a shrewd broker, so he set up a company after the Great Depression. But the book proposes a different interpretation - Buffett had to find solace in the certainty of numbers because his mum had a mental illness that caused her to explode in anger when Buffett was growing up. 

I like this interpretation a lot because I hated how humanities were taught to my generation in secondary school. We were made to memorise entire paragraphs of text, and the teacher gave exam tips to the girls in the uniformed groups who pleased him. I was driven to maths and science because there was certainty in scientific answers, and I had a field day arguing with my teachers that they got their answers wrong. During my time in secondary school, I never lost such an argument as I had A-level texts on my side. 

But I digress. 

For those who want to benefit from the book, you may need to examine your own behaviour and then go through the painful process of unpacking your personal experiences to explain why you behave this way. While I spend quite little compared to my peers, I can think of many folks in this FIRE space who need therapy more than I do. 

So, instead, I will share a bit about my approach to spending money. Different kinds of money evoke different levels of shame or guilt when I pay them. This may apply to some readers, but many of you may have a distinct hierarchy compared to me, and that's ok. It's quite challenging not to put our assets into different buckets, so some amount of feeling and emotion can influence the way we spend. 

a) Inherited capital

I find that inherited capital triggers the highest amount of shame or guilt when it is spent. It feels like my dad gave me a cow, and I've decided to bring it into the shed and blow its brains out. And I've never spent my inherited capital before. The thought of it is painful to me. 

However, I do sell and reposition that portfolio, even though I always buy slightly more than I sell. I don't think I'm stubborn enough to spend inherited capital if I'm faced with a life-and-death issue, actually.

b) Earned capital

Second on the list is most of my earned capital, blood money earned from effort in the past, which I have converted into stocks. I might have liquidated some stocks I bought a while ago to put a down payment on my condo, but I also feel terrible if I have to sell stocks to cover my expenses. 

c) Dividends - Inherited vs Earned

Most of my spending comes from dividends I get from my investments. I often do not spend all of it, but I have accumulated about a year's worth of expenses just so I don't have to pay (a) and (b). Even my dividends are categorised. I have dividends from earned income, which I'm happy to pay, but I used inherited dividend flows to build up cash reserves.

I have tapped into inherited dividends twice before, once for my mum's angioplasty and now once more for some dental expenses for my kids. I consider tuition expenses and enrichment justified to be tapped from this pool.

d) Salary

Fortunately for my sanity, I don't consider my salary "blood money" because my life is post-FIRE. I only earn because I have great business partners or the work is enjoyable. I'm not fast and loose, but I draw from my earned income first, then from my dividends. Excess is farmed back into dividend stocks. 

Please note that I no longer earn enough to pay all my family expenses and support my mortgage. This bothers me a bit, but I have plenty of dividends to cover the shortfalls. 

e) Rental income from Malaysia

When it comes to spending money at this stage, I let my hair down.

We have some rental income denominated in Malaysian Ringgit. It's like having a weird cow that produces chocolate milk that is so ugly that no one wants to buy it. We rush to drink the chocolate milk before it curdles.

My ringgit is the funny money that enables me to be generous with friends, and there's a greater urgency to just spend it away. Our tenant has been around for 30+ years, and the sums, while very small,  will replenish every month.

f) Government $$$ handouts and Academic vouchers

My kids are all right; we get vouchers for their academic performance. I will quickly buy the popular voucher from them with cash to buy books from the bookstore. I can often find an excuse to wipe all vouchers in one visit. 

Last month, I also received $200 in my bank account from the Singapore government. This is the most guiltless kind of money I receive every year, and I blew $100 on wine and backwards with fellow SGFI telegrammed a few days ago. Because I don't have rarefied tastes, spending $100 on wine that I can't differentiate from $20, brandless bottles is out of character for me - BECAUSE IT IS A LOT OF BAKKWA! 

Nevertheless, I had a great evening because this has been paid for by the Singapore Government.

I'm aware that all this I'm sharing is an example of mental accounting, but we are human beings, after all. 

I hope that readers will spend some time thinking about their own spending and various money-related neuroses after reading this article.