For the year end, I'm going to do something different since I have been updating everyone on my personal progress. So today, I'm going to be a kay-poh and will pick three bloggers and talk about their 2017 moving into 2018 :
a) Budget Babe
Budget Babe is going to be a target of a lot of salty folks getting into 2018. I always found it damn irritating that people disrespect her for two reasons : One is that she is a woman. The other is that she's a Millenial.
BB had an awesome year doubling her net worth and getting married at the same period of time. It's hard to imagine anyone else having a better year than she did.
Of course the sharks are coming. So many critics will warn her of the crypto-currency collapse and predicting a horrible year for her, but I think her mastery of crypto and equity picks are really respectable and I have made some crypto moves after considering some input from her.
I believe that BB is on of those bloggers to watch, she will hit her FI years before I ever managed to achieve it.
b) Cheerful Egg
Lionel also had a fantastic 2017.
I chose Lionel because Lionel is very spiritual and deeply religious which is a good contrast against my cynical atheism. Lionel reminds atheists like me that there are clearly benefits to have a deep faith in a belief that we might be missing out. It's not enough to make me religious ( because I was a persecuted D&D fanatic in the 1980s ), but it's enough to make me respect folks who integrate a strong faith in their blog write-ups.
Lionel is always very balanced and his article reflected on his travels. Admittedly, his Santorini pics dealt me a lot of psychic damage in 2017 because I was too busy studying legal cases when he was having the most fun. He also managed to train with Dale Carnegie which I always suspected may have been a better but more expensive alternative to the Toastmasters so something to consider if you are sick and tired of Toastmasters politicking.
Nevertheless, with his move into Data Science, I hope to be able to pick up a few tricks from him. Python is winning a slow war against R and there is some pressure to switch. Even NUS Law School has a Python programming module these days.
c) A Path to Forever Financial Freedom
The insiders are commenting the difference between Lionel and Brian Halim's blog. Lionel's very aspirational approach is contrasted with Brian's plans for 2018 which looks like a checklist with hard, solid targets to meet. This is a great way to start the new year, with hard-hitting targets for 2018.
Some of Brian's target is hard to achieve like a 10% return target. Some are definitely within reach, like a 20% savings rate. He also desires to read and do more yoga.
Why did I choose to go with this exercise ?
The three bloggers are generally aligned to the concept of financial freedom and money.
One reading is that 2017 was a fantastic year or investors.
But you might want to contrast their results with other folks on your Facebook who might not be aligned with so much money but has other passions and interests.
In my case, when I review the lives of other Gen X guys going to enter the darkest phase of their lives, things are not as optimistic as the folks in the financial blogosphere. There is definitely a lot more cynicism and saltiness. Many have goals which were not met in 2017 and casually swept it under the carpet. Others blame the government and society for screwing them over even though a large part of 2017 was based on their own personal choices.
So is success a function of your personal choices or your Fate?
Take the time to observe social media and form your own conclusions....
For me, I'm honored to be able to take a glimpse of the lives of the winners in the blogosphere.
Growing your Tree of Prosperity is an introductory investment guide written specifically for Singaporeans who wish to take their first step towards financial independence.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Friday, December 29, 2017
So will any ITE guy date an RGS girl in 2018 ?
Yesterday, the Straits Times had an article on class divisions. The article attempts to conclude something that we already know - There are class divisions in Singapore.
The journalist did not explain why these class divisions exist, so it falls on the financial blogger to do so.
a) Freedom and Equality are trade-offs that every society makes.
No society gets this trade-off right to the satisfaction of all its citizens. On one hand, we want to the freedom to apply our talents to become the best that we can be. On the other hand, we also want a certain measure of equality between all citizens.
Singapore has made a brutal choice between Freedom and Equality and we've largely chosen freedom : That is the freedom to accumulate wealth and the freedom to be rewarded based on merit. This has resulted in a low tax regime with an education system that works with the industry to rewards academic ability.
The folks who desire equality are truly the minority compared to Scandinavian countries. I see it even in Polytechnics where the students who look forward to University want a syllabus that prepares them for that eventuality and wishes that they did not have to move at the same pace as the average Polytechnic student.
b) Assortative Mating is one of the greatest contributors to inequality in modern society
People marrying others with the same paper qualifications and social economic status contributes up to 40% of income inequality but this is rarely emphasized or mentioned by policy makers. One reason is that policy makers also marry each other and would like to retain that freedom to do so. Otherwise, a socialist experiment would force a scholar to date and marry a truck driver. Unless a scholar vehemently disagrees with me on this blog, I doubt scholars (or truck drivers) would really like that.
These days, I see a lot of such "power couples" in SMU Law School and I am very impressed with the stability of these relationships. One of the better inventions made by Millenials is the idea of intellectual compatibility. ( Campus romance was a lot more unstable and volatile 20 years ago. )
Ok, given that I have painted two fundamental truths about inequality and class divisions in Singapore, I think we are not doing some things right.
I think it is wrong to put the blame and responsibility solely on Singapore elites.
So far we've only been reading about the RI Principal admitting that his students now tend to come from the upper crust and need some intervention to mix around with middle income and working class kids.
But it takes two hands to clap. I have yet to see, for illustration purposes, the Changkat Changi Secondary School principal admit that his kids might be disadvantaged if they do not form networks with RI or ACS kids early in their lives. One possible way is to have a friendly game of sport where the schools mix up their students just to get them to bond with each other. I benefited from plenty of exposure because I represented my secondary school in science competitions. We seriously need to stop seeing our elites as something to be salty about and instead, as a benchmark to compete against.
One of the reasons why I love Donald Trump is that thanks to populism in US, we're seeing genuine effort from elites to emphathize with the ordinary Singaporeans. Also, since the 2011 elections, Polytechnic graduates are finally seeing some increments. Our government is concerned as even a good government can be overthrown once class divisions become too pronounced in society.
But that's just one side of the equation. Ordinary Singaporeans must also step forward to be willing to mix and network with elites who are hungry to seek forgiveness from them.
Thanks to Heather Chua, we used to get upset when the RGS girl refuses to accept having a date with an ITE guy.
But now, I ask a deeper question:
How many ITE guys would want to date an RGS girl ?
There is no point applying social pressure to the RGS girls to be less elitist and to be more accepting of ITE guys when ITE guys are scared shitless of dating them.
We'd just end up with better daughters, but no better age.
The journalist did not explain why these class divisions exist, so it falls on the financial blogger to do so.
a) Freedom and Equality are trade-offs that every society makes.
No society gets this trade-off right to the satisfaction of all its citizens. On one hand, we want to the freedom to apply our talents to become the best that we can be. On the other hand, we also want a certain measure of equality between all citizens.
Singapore has made a brutal choice between Freedom and Equality and we've largely chosen freedom : That is the freedom to accumulate wealth and the freedom to be rewarded based on merit. This has resulted in a low tax regime with an education system that works with the industry to rewards academic ability.
The folks who desire equality are truly the minority compared to Scandinavian countries. I see it even in Polytechnics where the students who look forward to University want a syllabus that prepares them for that eventuality and wishes that they did not have to move at the same pace as the average Polytechnic student.
b) Assortative Mating is one of the greatest contributors to inequality in modern society
People marrying others with the same paper qualifications and social economic status contributes up to 40% of income inequality but this is rarely emphasized or mentioned by policy makers. One reason is that policy makers also marry each other and would like to retain that freedom to do so. Otherwise, a socialist experiment would force a scholar to date and marry a truck driver. Unless a scholar vehemently disagrees with me on this blog, I doubt scholars (or truck drivers) would really like that.
These days, I see a lot of such "power couples" in SMU Law School and I am very impressed with the stability of these relationships. One of the better inventions made by Millenials is the idea of intellectual compatibility. ( Campus romance was a lot more unstable and volatile 20 years ago. )
Ok, given that I have painted two fundamental truths about inequality and class divisions in Singapore, I think we are not doing some things right.
I think it is wrong to put the blame and responsibility solely on Singapore elites.
So far we've only been reading about the RI Principal admitting that his students now tend to come from the upper crust and need some intervention to mix around with middle income and working class kids.
But it takes two hands to clap. I have yet to see, for illustration purposes, the Changkat Changi Secondary School principal admit that his kids might be disadvantaged if they do not form networks with RI or ACS kids early in their lives. One possible way is to have a friendly game of sport where the schools mix up their students just to get them to bond with each other. I benefited from plenty of exposure because I represented my secondary school in science competitions. We seriously need to stop seeing our elites as something to be salty about and instead, as a benchmark to compete against.
One of the reasons why I love Donald Trump is that thanks to populism in US, we're seeing genuine effort from elites to emphathize with the ordinary Singaporeans. Also, since the 2011 elections, Polytechnic graduates are finally seeing some increments. Our government is concerned as even a good government can be overthrown once class divisions become too pronounced in society.
But that's just one side of the equation. Ordinary Singaporeans must also step forward to be willing to mix and network with elites who are hungry to seek forgiveness from them.
Thanks to Heather Chua, we used to get upset when the RGS girl refuses to accept having a date with an ITE guy.
But now, I ask a deeper question:
How many ITE guys would want to date an RGS girl ?
There is no point applying social pressure to the RGS girls to be less elitist and to be more accepting of ITE guys when ITE guys are scared shitless of dating them.
We'd just end up with better daughters, but no better age.
Thursday, December 28, 2017
The Art of the Good Life #3 : Inflexibility as a Strategem
Inflexibility is normally seen as being irrational.
The book uses the example of the CEO who has a no tolerance policy towards eating dessert. He can easily wait for the dessert to arrive and then refuse to eat it. Instead, he always makes it a point to ensure that the dessert was struck off the menu even if it already part of a paid set meal.
For the past 15 years, I have also used inflexibility as an investment strategy. No matter how attractive the stock was, I will not invest in it unless it gives out a decent dividend which is pegged at around 6% for my core portfolio and 4% for my CPF assets. This was because I'd like to be paid for holding onto my counters.
This policy has not been easy to follow.
I read a lot of brokerage reports and knew that stocks like Best World was doing well even before the uptick started. Also, moving forward, I am also extremely bullish about counters like iFast even though I did not buy any. But my dividend policy ensures that I can only mope when these stocks become multi-baggers.
The reasoning for insisting on dividends is simple, missing out on bigger dividends may give me counters like iFast and Best World but I might end up owning other stocks which may halve in value when they are hit with a negative surprise. Growth stocks tank really badly when there is no dividends to cushion the blow. No one remembers the growth stocks that petered out.
With a much larger portfolio size, I can now use back-testing to determine which stocks to invest in so I no longer follow such earlier maxims. Now my investment portfolios must be back-tested.
As it turns out, inflexibility is a powerful tool because it helps you conserve your willpower which is a finite resource. After every meal, we replenish a store of willpower that we deplete whenever we are forced to make a decision. When these reserves get depleted, we start making mistakes in our work. When we choose to be inflexible about something, we avoid making a decision because it is, in essence, already made for us.
This is why the most productive and creative professionals design a life around making the fewest decisions throughout the day. Having a fixed work uniform means not ever having to make decisions on fashion. Getting set on a fixed breakfast menu means not having to make a decision on what to buy for a meal.
Minimizing routine decisions is only winning half the battle. The other half is mustering your cognitive resources to make the decisions that matter during your day.
The book uses the example of the CEO who has a no tolerance policy towards eating dessert. He can easily wait for the dessert to arrive and then refuse to eat it. Instead, he always makes it a point to ensure that the dessert was struck off the menu even if it already part of a paid set meal.
For the past 15 years, I have also used inflexibility as an investment strategy. No matter how attractive the stock was, I will not invest in it unless it gives out a decent dividend which is pegged at around 6% for my core portfolio and 4% for my CPF assets. This was because I'd like to be paid for holding onto my counters.
This policy has not been easy to follow.
I read a lot of brokerage reports and knew that stocks like Best World was doing well even before the uptick started. Also, moving forward, I am also extremely bullish about counters like iFast even though I did not buy any. But my dividend policy ensures that I can only mope when these stocks become multi-baggers.
The reasoning for insisting on dividends is simple, missing out on bigger dividends may give me counters like iFast and Best World but I might end up owning other stocks which may halve in value when they are hit with a negative surprise. Growth stocks tank really badly when there is no dividends to cushion the blow. No one remembers the growth stocks that petered out.
With a much larger portfolio size, I can now use back-testing to determine which stocks to invest in so I no longer follow such earlier maxims. Now my investment portfolios must be back-tested.
As it turns out, inflexibility is a powerful tool because it helps you conserve your willpower which is a finite resource. After every meal, we replenish a store of willpower that we deplete whenever we are forced to make a decision. When these reserves get depleted, we start making mistakes in our work. When we choose to be inflexible about something, we avoid making a decision because it is, in essence, already made for us.
This is why the most productive and creative professionals design a life around making the fewest decisions throughout the day. Having a fixed work uniform means not ever having to make decisions on fashion. Getting set on a fixed breakfast menu means not having to make a decision on what to buy for a meal.
Minimizing routine decisions is only winning half the battle. The other half is mustering your cognitive resources to make the decisions that matter during your day.
Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Possible solutions for Polytechnic Graduates.
The last post on Polytechnic students must have struck a chord with the readership as the numbers have been off the charts. It has sparked a firestorm of comments on EDMW, you can find the link here. This is particularly amusing because the first few comments were complaints that my post was too long and the those readers demanded summaries to the post which, somehow, proves my point about the folks who blame the 70% and call all of us "Sinkies".
One or two comments, however, were valid criticisms of my original post.
The post has also been reproduced with my permission here because I guess some educators felt that this was something parents should read about.
Since the original post came out, some folks have volunteered more information about polytechnic education in Singapore. I leave it to the readers to verify the truth of these statements :
a) The average polytechnic student spend more time in the gym or playing computer games during lectures. An attitude problem exists within a significant proportion of the cohort.
b) Polytechnic exams are too easy and are slanted to assist the majority of the cohort. The top 20% who are bound for local university have been complaining for ages as they feel that they are not being sufficiently prepared by their Polys for the academic rigours of university work.
c) One problem raised is that the polytechnic lecturers themselves need to have an attitude of continuous self-improvement before it can rub off on their students. ( This is a valid feedback on the failures of my own generation of professionals. )
This post is primarily about solutions and I have to admit that I can't come up with very good ones.
If financial bloggers are that DAMN good, we'd be running the Education ministry.
Also, I doubt that this blog will be read by average Polytechnic students and I am confident that any solution will only be employed by the top Poly students to push themselves further up the social economic ladder and they will see a lot of personal success in this new economy.
But this is the best I can come up with :
a) Wait for the apprenticeship system to be fully implemented
A lot of readers including myself really want the German apprenticeship system to take off. I actually think that this system will take years to succeed and we'll be seeing a lot of false starts and foot shuffling before corporations start to en-roll for this scheme.
The reason is simple.
In Germany, the apprenticeship system is treating with the same respect as the academic track. This distributes talented workers between two branches fairly evenly so companies have that confidence that they will be able to find a decent mix of workers in their programmes. The same assurance cannot be made within Singapore.
I am guessing that the first few batches will not meet the expectations of a German Mittelstand and the government will need to manage the eventual fall-out deftly.
b) Leverage on online learning resources.
This is a nice solution that will work for the top 20% but will fail for the rest of the Polytechnic population. There are really good learning resources online but you will need a minimal level of motivation to want to pick up these new skills.
Bloggers can harp about how effective these online credentials are but if you are only motivated to earn enough money to do more LAN gaming, nothing I say can influence you further because... TLDR...
c) Join the Civil Service
I am glad that Civil service is opening its doors to non-degree officers. Not all government work requires the ability to conceptualise policy and the bulk of the work can be administrative and do not require degrees.
I am more skeptical about whether the government is genuine about hiring diploma holders into their ranks because these are highly desirable jobs and the government may end up just taking the cream of the crop and ignore the median Singaporean.
As of now, the Government remains the most elitist workplace I have ever worked for and I doubt a mindset change can be made within one generation. We may end up leaving out a good stable career for the average Singaporean.
d) Emigration
What bothered me is that when me and friends discussed a solution, this was the only solution that could withstand an intellectual challenge.
Singaporeans have increased in value over the years because of our "integrity". We're so clean that we simply do not understand how corrupt societies work. This makes us amazing catches if we are wiling to relocate to other societies and companies have to manage the legal risks of violating extra-territorial laws like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
As such, our "innocence" holds great value.
We might be average in Singapore but we might be a valued human resource if we can take our basic skills into a tier-2 city like Chongqing. We need to nudge successful Singaporeans abroad to offer a helping hand to other Singaporeans who are stuck in a dead-end position locally.
Am I satisfied with these solutions ? Probably not.
I am however, fully prepared to supplement my children's income with investment returns if they fail to make it under the local education system. I think Singaporean parents over-invest in tuition, I will be balancing this versus the establishment of a financial portfolio.
Hope this will give them an edge which other parents cannot provide.
( I will never allow myself to get into a fair fight with other parents when it comes to my kid's future, sorry ! )
One or two comments, however, were valid criticisms of my original post.
The post has also been reproduced with my permission here because I guess some educators felt that this was something parents should read about.
Since the original post came out, some folks have volunteered more information about polytechnic education in Singapore. I leave it to the readers to verify the truth of these statements :
a) The average polytechnic student spend more time in the gym or playing computer games during lectures. An attitude problem exists within a significant proportion of the cohort.
b) Polytechnic exams are too easy and are slanted to assist the majority of the cohort. The top 20% who are bound for local university have been complaining for ages as they feel that they are not being sufficiently prepared by their Polys for the academic rigours of university work.
c) One problem raised is that the polytechnic lecturers themselves need to have an attitude of continuous self-improvement before it can rub off on their students. ( This is a valid feedback on the failures of my own generation of professionals. )
This post is primarily about solutions and I have to admit that I can't come up with very good ones.
If financial bloggers are that DAMN good, we'd be running the Education ministry.
Also, I doubt that this blog will be read by average Polytechnic students and I am confident that any solution will only be employed by the top Poly students to push themselves further up the social economic ladder and they will see a lot of personal success in this new economy.
But this is the best I can come up with :
a) Wait for the apprenticeship system to be fully implemented
A lot of readers including myself really want the German apprenticeship system to take off. I actually think that this system will take years to succeed and we'll be seeing a lot of false starts and foot shuffling before corporations start to en-roll for this scheme.
The reason is simple.
In Germany, the apprenticeship system is treating with the same respect as the academic track. This distributes talented workers between two branches fairly evenly so companies have that confidence that they will be able to find a decent mix of workers in their programmes. The same assurance cannot be made within Singapore.
I am guessing that the first few batches will not meet the expectations of a German Mittelstand and the government will need to manage the eventual fall-out deftly.
b) Leverage on online learning resources.
This is a nice solution that will work for the top 20% but will fail for the rest of the Polytechnic population. There are really good learning resources online but you will need a minimal level of motivation to want to pick up these new skills.
Bloggers can harp about how effective these online credentials are but if you are only motivated to earn enough money to do more LAN gaming, nothing I say can influence you further because... TLDR...
c) Join the Civil Service
I am glad that Civil service is opening its doors to non-degree officers. Not all government work requires the ability to conceptualise policy and the bulk of the work can be administrative and do not require degrees.
I am more skeptical about whether the government is genuine about hiring diploma holders into their ranks because these are highly desirable jobs and the government may end up just taking the cream of the crop and ignore the median Singaporean.
As of now, the Government remains the most elitist workplace I have ever worked for and I doubt a mindset change can be made within one generation. We may end up leaving out a good stable career for the average Singaporean.
d) Emigration
What bothered me is that when me and friends discussed a solution, this was the only solution that could withstand an intellectual challenge.
Singaporeans have increased in value over the years because of our "integrity". We're so clean that we simply do not understand how corrupt societies work. This makes us amazing catches if we are wiling to relocate to other societies and companies have to manage the legal risks of violating extra-territorial laws like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
As such, our "innocence" holds great value.
We might be average in Singapore but we might be a valued human resource if we can take our basic skills into a tier-2 city like Chongqing. We need to nudge successful Singaporeans abroad to offer a helping hand to other Singaporeans who are stuck in a dead-end position locally.
Am I satisfied with these solutions ? Probably not.
I am however, fully prepared to supplement my children's income with investment returns if they fail to make it under the local education system. I think Singaporean parents over-invest in tuition, I will be balancing this versus the establishment of a financial portfolio.
Hope this will give them an edge which other parents cannot provide.
( I will never allow myself to get into a fair fight with other parents when it comes to my kid's future, sorry ! )
Monday, December 25, 2017
Thoughts on my 43rd Birthday.
I actually share the same birthday with two illustrious individuals. The first founded a major religion and is thought to have died for all our sins. The second guy made millions of people die for his sins when he started a Cultural Revolution in the last century.
This Christmas is also the first year that I dedicate Christmas exclusively to my family without the presence of any friends. My family does not have domestic help at the moment, and I can't seem to choose which friends to invite to my home without being unfair to the rest. This is a good problem for an extrovert to have as I have made many new friends in the financial blogosphere and legal industry. So, instead of a massive birthday celebration, I will spend the rest of the holiday season catching with anyone who is free.
a) I still have a chance with the legal profession
The past year has been spent putting the final touches for me to join the legal profession. I finally graduated with my JD and finished off my bar exams. Beginning next year, I begin my training contract and will spend 6 more months in the legal sector. Beyond this point, anything can happen.
I will need to make an honest assessment of my commercial value as a corporate litigator vis a vis my value in IT compliance.
b) My four year "Holiday" is over in 2018
Compared to my classmates, I don't travel a lot. I think transitioning into the legal sector is itself like global travel, although the academic stress may mean that it's closer travelling to Iraq or Afghanistan for a sightseeing trip. Nevertheless, I had a great holiday of 4 years where I picked up an entirely new discipline and gained the capability to take apart a new class of problems that most engineers can only dream of solving. ( My favourite being a theoretical exercise on how to scheme with a old patriarch on the myriad of mays to leave money for his mistress. )
Particularly valuable is the experience of interacting with a new generation of legal professionals and working alongside the widely misunderstood class of Millenials. ( Making things more challenging is that I used a Macbook Air as my PC throughout my legal training )
As a result of this experience, I have a lot more confidence in this generation of Singaporeans. As such, I would like to leave the Millenial shaming to the losers and cynics in my age category. My concern moving forward would always be about matching their energy, earning their respect and keeping up with these folks in my next workplace.
c) More challenging financial targets moving forward
From a financial perspective, I should be relieved as my net worth today was higher than my last day of work four years ago. This is considering that it takes about $60,000 a year to support my family each year and I have been out of workforce for four years.
Moving forward, I have to adjust my passive income expectations upwards. First of all, my margin account must be able to offset my mortgage payments, leaving some room for modest capital gains. I really want to give my CPF-OA a break after I start work.
Secondly, my new career has to push my passive income from my core portfolio to $120,000 a year. This is going be quite a challenge on rookie lawyer's salary and I may be kept busy until, perhaps, I am 55. ( But returning to IT might make things easier. )
d) No more half-hearted financial positions.
This year in 2018, there will be a massive change in the way I approach my investments.
Although it was a positive year, one of the reasons I made so little money from crypto was because I was not brave enough to take a meaningful position when I have a personal conviction on something. I have set the threshold of a meaningful position to 1% of my net worth. From this point onwards, gains become more meaningful but losses will start to hurt in this upcoming year.
Beyond establishing a margin account, I will be creating a market neutral portfolio and will take on a more aggressive stance on new age investments like crypto-currencies. As everything operates beyond my need for financial independence and supporting my family, I can turn my investing operations into something akin to an experimental laboratory. You can expect statistical programming to play a bigger role moving forward.
Next week, I will try to make my predictions on the markets next week in a New Year Post.
Merry Christmas everyone !
This Christmas is also the first year that I dedicate Christmas exclusively to my family without the presence of any friends. My family does not have domestic help at the moment, and I can't seem to choose which friends to invite to my home without being unfair to the rest. This is a good problem for an extrovert to have as I have made many new friends in the financial blogosphere and legal industry. So, instead of a massive birthday celebration, I will spend the rest of the holiday season catching with anyone who is free.
a) I still have a chance with the legal profession
The past year has been spent putting the final touches for me to join the legal profession. I finally graduated with my JD and finished off my bar exams. Beginning next year, I begin my training contract and will spend 6 more months in the legal sector. Beyond this point, anything can happen.
I will need to make an honest assessment of my commercial value as a corporate litigator vis a vis my value in IT compliance.
b) My four year "Holiday" is over in 2018
Compared to my classmates, I don't travel a lot. I think transitioning into the legal sector is itself like global travel, although the academic stress may mean that it's closer travelling to Iraq or Afghanistan for a sightseeing trip. Nevertheless, I had a great holiday of 4 years where I picked up an entirely new discipline and gained the capability to take apart a new class of problems that most engineers can only dream of solving. ( My favourite being a theoretical exercise on how to scheme with a old patriarch on the myriad of mays to leave money for his mistress. )
Particularly valuable is the experience of interacting with a new generation of legal professionals and working alongside the widely misunderstood class of Millenials. ( Making things more challenging is that I used a Macbook Air as my PC throughout my legal training )
As a result of this experience, I have a lot more confidence in this generation of Singaporeans. As such, I would like to leave the Millenial shaming to the losers and cynics in my age category. My concern moving forward would always be about matching their energy, earning their respect and keeping up with these folks in my next workplace.
c) More challenging financial targets moving forward
From a financial perspective, I should be relieved as my net worth today was higher than my last day of work four years ago. This is considering that it takes about $60,000 a year to support my family each year and I have been out of workforce for four years.
Moving forward, I have to adjust my passive income expectations upwards. First of all, my margin account must be able to offset my mortgage payments, leaving some room for modest capital gains. I really want to give my CPF-OA a break after I start work.
Secondly, my new career has to push my passive income from my core portfolio to $120,000 a year. This is going be quite a challenge on rookie lawyer's salary and I may be kept busy until, perhaps, I am 55. ( But returning to IT might make things easier. )
d) No more half-hearted financial positions.
This year in 2018, there will be a massive change in the way I approach my investments.
Although it was a positive year, one of the reasons I made so little money from crypto was because I was not brave enough to take a meaningful position when I have a personal conviction on something. I have set the threshold of a meaningful position to 1% of my net worth. From this point onwards, gains become more meaningful but losses will start to hurt in this upcoming year.
Beyond establishing a margin account, I will be creating a market neutral portfolio and will take on a more aggressive stance on new age investments like crypto-currencies. As everything operates beyond my need for financial independence and supporting my family, I can turn my investing operations into something akin to an experimental laboratory. You can expect statistical programming to play a bigger role moving forward.
Next week, I will try to make my predictions on the markets next week in a New Year Post.
Merry Christmas everyone !
Saturday, December 23, 2017
Brutal truths about Polytechnic graduates.
As a parent of two kids, issues affecting Polytechnic students and graduates are important issues to me because, at this moment, I still lie behind the Rawlsian veil. I am concerned that if my children did not qualify for a seat in a local university and end up studying in a Polytechnic/ITE, they will face an uncertain future with the gig economy.
I think many parents have this fear but they are too ashamed to admit it because it hurts the feelings of 50% of their friends. Also, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with turning out average. It's only wrong in a place like Singapore.
I echoed my fears and shared my deepest concerns with a friend I know, whom in my opinion, is best positioned to address my fears because he is very successful in business, lectured in polytechnics, and are intimately close with the problem at hand. He is a straight-talking fellow.
In summary, the conversation left me more shaken than before.
I asked my friend, why not put two and two together and have Singapore's startup eco-system draw their recruits primarily from Polytechnics, specifically poly graduates who are not going into local universities, instead of waging a price war for local university graduates?
He said that most startups would be, privately, unwilling to hire the 80% of the polytechnics cohort. My friend commented that our education system sorts people out "far too well". I read this as a hint that people's motivations correlates well to their academic positions in the local education system.
The conversation then took an even darker turn...
My friend said that he can teach a polytechnic class and he will know exactly who is on their way towards a local university within one week of interacting with his students. My interpretation of this statement is that the polytechnic population is now bimodal. 20% of poly graduates are elites from the secondary school cohort who possibly wanted to avoid JC because they hate PE and CL2 lessons. These guys will go to a local university and become leaders of the future industry. The government will then praise the polytechnic system for producing such corporate heroes and declare that we have an egalitarian meritocracy. But that still leaves 80% to be destined to join the gig economy after getting a diploma if they don't sign up for some private degree program.
I then asked what can the 80% be hired to do after we transform into a Smart City ? Are we being blinded to to the needs of the middle class given that the 20% of poly grads are becoming doctors and lawyers and seem to be doing better and better every year?
My friend did not answer the question directly despite being a really smart guy.
After the conversation took a detour into several other areas, he said that perhaps his average students can be hired to do admin work, but cautioned me that such work needs to be documented very carefully, or the work would not be done properly. Perhaps, he did not have confidence that the average poly graduate would have any initiative in the corporate world at all.
We did not come up with any clear solutions that day beyond the flippant idea that unhappy Singaporeans may make a bigger difference if they build a career in a second tier city in China like Chongqing or Australia.
For this Christmas, when we think about compassion and empathy, the general idea is for us to focus on the bottom 5-20%. This is why elites like to focus on charity work. Helping the disabled and homeless makes us feel so good and superior to the other Singaporeans who do less charity. Also, the story behind the struggling single mum who has to raise intellectually disabled children can easily make us cry.
There is no compassion or empathy for the median Singaporean because if you are median, there are an equal number of people who are both better and worse off than you. The story of the Singlish speaking dude who spending weekends LAN gaming at Parklane and nights fapping to anime porn is more likely to make us go "Meh."
But not thinking about giving a decent life for the average Singaporean is what can poison a good society. World events in 2017 have shown that Populism can upstage a great government once hope is lost. Populations can turn against free trade and capitalism even if it better for them over the long term.
Asa result of our apathy, the people who just want to see the world burn will grow stronger.
My friend said that even friending his students can be a negative experience. His students are the ones who spell Singaporeans "Sinkies" or "Sinkaporeans" and find every excuse blame the 70%.
It's very easy every Christmas to brag about the good we do for the unfortunate or the poor.
But it's much harder to admit that we did not spare a thought for the average fellow citizen who is facing the latest round of disruption from our transformation to a Smart City.
For this Christmas, I am admitting it right now.
I think many parents have this fear but they are too ashamed to admit it because it hurts the feelings of 50% of their friends. Also, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with turning out average. It's only wrong in a place like Singapore.
I echoed my fears and shared my deepest concerns with a friend I know, whom in my opinion, is best positioned to address my fears because he is very successful in business, lectured in polytechnics, and are intimately close with the problem at hand. He is a straight-talking fellow.
In summary, the conversation left me more shaken than before.
I asked my friend, why not put two and two together and have Singapore's startup eco-system draw their recruits primarily from Polytechnics, specifically poly graduates who are not going into local universities, instead of waging a price war for local university graduates?
He said that most startups would be, privately, unwilling to hire the 80% of the polytechnics cohort. My friend commented that our education system sorts people out "far too well". I read this as a hint that people's motivations correlates well to their academic positions in the local education system.
The conversation then took an even darker turn...
My friend said that he can teach a polytechnic class and he will know exactly who is on their way towards a local university within one week of interacting with his students. My interpretation of this statement is that the polytechnic population is now bimodal. 20% of poly graduates are elites from the secondary school cohort who possibly wanted to avoid JC because they hate PE and CL2 lessons. These guys will go to a local university and become leaders of the future industry. The government will then praise the polytechnic system for producing such corporate heroes and declare that we have an egalitarian meritocracy. But that still leaves 80% to be destined to join the gig economy after getting a diploma if they don't sign up for some private degree program.
I then asked what can the 80% be hired to do after we transform into a Smart City ? Are we being blinded to to the needs of the middle class given that the 20% of poly grads are becoming doctors and lawyers and seem to be doing better and better every year?
My friend did not answer the question directly despite being a really smart guy.
After the conversation took a detour into several other areas, he said that perhaps his average students can be hired to do admin work, but cautioned me that such work needs to be documented very carefully, or the work would not be done properly. Perhaps, he did not have confidence that the average poly graduate would have any initiative in the corporate world at all.
We did not come up with any clear solutions that day beyond the flippant idea that unhappy Singaporeans may make a bigger difference if they build a career in a second tier city in China like Chongqing or Australia.
For this Christmas, when we think about compassion and empathy, the general idea is for us to focus on the bottom 5-20%. This is why elites like to focus on charity work. Helping the disabled and homeless makes us feel so good and superior to the other Singaporeans who do less charity. Also, the story behind the struggling single mum who has to raise intellectually disabled children can easily make us cry.
There is no compassion or empathy for the median Singaporean because if you are median, there are an equal number of people who are both better and worse off than you. The story of the Singlish speaking dude who spending weekends LAN gaming at Parklane and nights fapping to anime porn is more likely to make us go "Meh."
But not thinking about giving a decent life for the average Singaporean is what can poison a good society. World events in 2017 have shown that Populism can upstage a great government once hope is lost. Populations can turn against free trade and capitalism even if it better for them over the long term.
Asa result of our apathy, the people who just want to see the world burn will grow stronger.
My friend said that even friending his students can be a negative experience. His students are the ones who spell Singaporeans "Sinkies" or "Sinkaporeans" and find every excuse blame the 70%.
It's very easy every Christmas to brag about the good we do for the unfortunate or the poor.
But it's much harder to admit that we did not spare a thought for the average fellow citizen who is facing the latest round of disruption from our transformation to a Smart City.
For this Christmas, I am admitting it right now.
Friday, December 22, 2017
The Art of the Good Life #2 : The Set-Up and the Correction.
Another useful mental model to adopt is that in many areas of our lives, there is a phase where set-up occurs and there is another phase where correction needs to take place.
As an Asian society that values of conscientiousness, we have a tendency to over-emphasise the set-up but we have a tendency to under-emphasise the correction phase.
Sadly, the correction phase is becoming more important in our society.
a) Education
Generation X will be the last generation where you can focus on getting your first degree right and the pay-off throughout your career would be assured. To thrive in the current working world, getting a degree will, at most, land you a great job with a good company for about 3-4 years. Beyond that stage, your human capital will decline even if you are gainfully employed because you will be spending your working hours developing skills specific to your company which may not be transferable to your next job.
So correction in the workforce becomes important. You need to have a feel on how the industry is involving and invest your time after office hours to master the skills for your next job. This means that the rewards will go to workers who thrive in their current jobs but is always preparing for their next one.
Of course, this does not mean that the set-up is unimportant. You need to have a decent set-up and have some kind of system to correct yourself to respond to industry changes.
Otherwise, you may be relegated to the gig economy.
b) Gaming
Subtle changes to the Dungeons and Dragons game is also shifting gameplay from setup to correction. Some players are great at creating super-powerful characters. In 5th Edition D&D, it could be paladin-assassins that clock ridiculous amounts of damage when they simultaneously critically hit and smite with the same attack.
But the game is best enjoyed actively with friends and I find that creating flexible characters that can respond to strange game situations are more fun and effective in a public gaming group over the long term. If your character does not have a super-power that you can always abuse to bludgeon your enemies, your gameplay changes and you try to adjust your gameplay to suit the moves of other PCs and the scenario thrown at your character.
( In the Singapore scene, there seems to be a particular disdain for the fighter's abuse of the Sharpshooter feat using hand crossbows. )
My current rogue Prince Nuada is a fairly weak build for a D&D character, but he has developed a really nasty Booming Blade Sneak Attack with a rapier and has great mobility. Most of his abilities are hidden in his character sheet as he is decent at disguise, forging documents and have unusual items like ball bearings and caltrops to shift the battlefield in the party's favour.
c) Personal Finance
It's really tempting to create some kind of investment strategy that would carry you all the way to retirement but there are too many changes going on in the financial markets. When times are good, it is tempting to start to leverage your portfolios. When times are bad, some investors quit investing altogether.
Whatever strategy you come out with, portfolio balancing provides some form of auto-correction to your asset allocation and you can also do that with a robo-advisor. But as I get older and have a larger portfolio, 5% of my portfolio should always be about discovering new investment opportunities and making yourself a better investor.
This year, I have not done well in crowdfunding loan campaigns as 2 out of 4 campaigns defaulted.
I also did not take a meaningful position in cryptocurrencies when I could have easily done so.
But my experiments on my margin portfolio have been my saving grace for 2017 and I look forward to be able to home-brew a market neutral portfolio possibly by end of 2018.
Thursday, December 21, 2017
STI correlation table : A small data science project for me and a Christmas present for you.
The past few weeks after the bar exams was a balancing act. The wife and kids are out of the country and I was supposed to have 2-3 weeks of intense partying. But I am too old to party anymore and can't seem to find any karaoke kakis no matter how hard I tried. Fortunately, I had quite a few intense D&D sessions.
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While I should avoid doing useful and practical stuff, one of my bigger fears is that I would lose some of my ability to code once I begin legal practice, so I tried to do a very small project just to maintain some currency in statistical programming.
I used R Studio to create my program. Specifically, I taught myself the 'tseries' package function get.hist.quote() allows me to download 10 years of daily price information from Yahoo finance into a "zoo" data structure. I created a new vector containing the lagged difference of logarithmic price information extracted and tried to find the correlation between each pair of stocks in the STI index. The final result is arranged in a matrix that I eventually transferred and beautified using Excel.
If done badly, you just end up with a massive data dump like the diagram below, but one piece of information is interesting.
The two stocks in the STI which are most negatively correlated with each other is Ascendas REIT and HPH Trust. So if you want to build a portfolio that gives acceptable yields but one component would move north when the other moves south, think no further than considering this pair of stocks.
Eventually, I will reuse this piece of code to loop through the REITs in my margin portfolio - the twin stocks which are poorest correlated to each other would be accumulated first when my legal career begins to start paying the bills.
There are a lot of problems if like me, you wish to become an arm-chair data scientist. Local data sources can be quite dirty and effort is required to cleanse the data before performing statistical operations on it. The folks in US have this database called CRSP so they don't have the same problems that we do.
As we become a Smart City, we need to collectively lobby for better data to assist our home-brewing research efforts.
A good place to start is to push SGX to publish daily prices fro 10 years or more in CSV format and allow us to download for free.
| NS8U.SI | MC0.SI | E5H.SI | S58.SI | Y92.SI | BS6.SI | U11.SI | BN4.SI | C6L.SI | J37.SI | S63.SI | C07.SI | O39.SI | Z74.SI | U96.SI | A17U.SI | H78.SI | C52.SI | C31.SI | D05.SI | F34.SI | J36.SI | G13.SI | T39.SI | C09.SI | S68.SI | C38U.SI | C61U.SI | U14.SI | CC3.SI | |
| NS8U.SI | 1 | -0.01649074 | 0.08006526 | 0.03437739 | -0.02271943 | 0.001976555 | -0.01714741 | 0.0291452 | -0.03804963 | -0.00181447 | -0.002143713 | -0.03373092 | -0.01745041 | 0.01350265 | -0.01873741 | -0.07888264 | 0.02561792 | 0.001747832 | -0.01439667 | -0.0239544 | 0.02870607 | 0.03353878 | -0.01990264 | -0.02103148 | -0.03980885 | -0.02585094 | -0.06884904 | -0.03457492 | -0.01365725 | 0.03049565 |
| MC0.SI | -0.016490741 | 1 | 0.22428522 | 0.11982527 | 0.06870477 | 0.289172417 | 0.38535539 | 0.38529998 | 0.24924094 | 0.14890437 | 0.301627967 | 0.28407001 | 0.38562593 | 0.28011956 | 0.37624669 | 0.23206764 | 0.28769031 | 0.220561226 | 0.38513376 | 0.40098622 | 0.25809527 | 0.1834527 | 0.31098893 | 0.25905568 | 0.33281166 | 0.36322738 | 0.27043672 | 0.30283243 | 0.3261733 | 0.15030383 |
| E5H.SI | 0.080065262 | 0.22428522 | 1 | 0.22769091 | 0.03699381 | 0.36945508 | 0.39693446 | 0.44637492 | 0.31072605 | 0.2395066 | 0.326634858 | 0.36693775 | 0.4289631 | 0.29238151 | 0.40775923 | 0.34142641 | 0.28313224 | 0.259453257 | 0.37599665 | 0.41057872 | 0.42843307 | 0.21457463 | 0.36905984 | 0.26144486 | 0.37502287 | 0.43454705 | 0.29909444 | 0.24476941 | 0.35168081 | 0.15619732 |
| S58.SI | 0.034377386 | 0.11982527 | 0.22769091 | 1 | 0.05790154 | 0.216021458 | 0.25354003 | 0.25599969 | 0.23572239 | 0.20900307 | 0.18420917 | 0.20977059 | 0.26932947 | 0.15689313 | 0.21752777 | 0.19612476 | 0.19539789 | 0.195891535 | 0.23277465 | 0.2596309 | 0.25771458 | 0.14403482 | 0.20691614 | 0.20811046 | 0.23903856 | 0.24499734 | 0.17341389 | 0.17039896 | 0.25570784 | 0.07791024 |
| Y92.SI | -0.022719426 | 0.06870477 | 0.03699381 | 0.05790154 | 1 | 0.064567021 | 0.07764786 | 0.04750671 | 0.05353912 | 0.07619748 | 0.082530531 | 0.10093112 | 0.08891431 | 0.08087801 | 0.05196155 | 0.06217726 | 0.08520861 | 0.107918898 | 0.04845807 | 0.07637871 | 0.04328505 | 0.05911279 | 0.06702228 | 0.07761691 | 0.05065339 | 0.07917218 | 0.06962906 | 0.07473872 | 0.10227041 | 0.02102888 |
| BS6.SI | 0.001976555 | 0.28917242 | 0.36945508 | 0.21602146 | 0.06456702 | 1 | 0.44027783 | 0.43875593 | 0.33846931 | 0.25214292 | 0.328315877 | 0.36698295 | 0.45752734 | 0.29602569 | 0.44025551 | 0.27938218 | 0.30299275 | 0.276739788 | 0.38868446 | 0.45722384 | 0.34782568 | 0.19111988 | 0.39814831 | 0.2886306 | 0.42622874 | 0.48528919 | 0.26183488 | 0.23073046 | 0.40895875 | 0.19855817 |
| U11.SI | -0.017147411 | 0.38535539 | 0.39693446 | 0.25354003 | 0.07764786 | 0.440277832 | 1 | 0.57154863 | 0.48476742 | 0.27152083 | 0.457089246 | 0.47024825 | 0.72835147 | 0.48608922 | 0.5340714 | 0.42972647 | 0.3649143 | 0.386898657 | 0.51746853 | 0.73183903 | 0.4143472 | 0.21664361 | 0.39372695 | 0.38985211 | 0.58237862 | 0.5953527 | 0.43132723 | 0.32108939 | 0.52803248 | 0.22556079 |
| BN4.SI | 0.029145201 | 0.38529998 | 0.44637492 | 0.25599969 | 0.04750671 | 0.438755934 | 0.57154863 | 1 | 0.43856284 | 0.32552104 | 0.429121452 | 0.46362049 | 0.5994581 | 0.41034301 | 0.69070048 | 0.41683628 | 0.35455357 | 0.35730854 | 0.47605935 | 0.59590919 | 0.49064251 | 0.28494713 | 0.42091553 | 0.36954329 | 0.54365724 | 0.56360353 | 0.40683629 | 0.31047079 | 0.47130496 | 0.26631419 |
| C6L.SI | -0.038049633 | 0.24924094 | 0.31072605 | 0.23572239 | 0.05353912 | 0.338469307 | 0.48476742 | 0.43856284 | 1 | 0.21600815 | 0.395958631 | 0.39295215 | 0.51424073 | 0.42017698 | 0.41501125 | 0.36033821 | 0.28348861 | 0.362767032 | 0.4137702 | 0.50311068 | 0.35646697 | 0.18469909 | 0.33062188 | 0.35288161 | 0.48955387 | 0.47666378 | 0.3618681 | 0.26820728 | 0.42431783 | 0.20026937 |
| J37.SI | -0.00181447 | 0.14890437 | 0.2395066 | 0.20900307 | 0.07619748 | 0.252142924 | 0.27152083 | 0.32552104 | 0.21600815 | 1 | 0.227788727 | 0.37219226 | 0.29573806 | 0.17147439 | 0.29458861 | 0.25112644 | 0.26973546 | 0.184230899 | 0.23725225 | 0.29787573 | 0.27328861 | 0.6036294 | 0.18902306 | 0.15386893 | 0.28765028 | 0.28343214 | 0.28447106 | 0.19547268 | 0.27837935 | 0.18909735 |
| S63.SI | -0.002143713 | 0.30162797 | 0.32663486 | 0.18420917 | 0.08253053 | 0.328315877 | 0.45708925 | 0.42912145 | 0.39595863 | 0.22778873 | 1 | 0.38860136 | 0.46651744 | 0.39163357 | 0.40452021 | 0.29131454 | 0.28157484 | 0.413562306 | 0.38588315 | 0.43843959 | 0.32028658 | 0.18559713 | 0.29554308 | 0.34405217 | 0.4198056 | 0.41190999 | 0.30214922 | 0.2841591 | 0.41146983 | 0.23840084 |
| C07.SI | -0.033730921 | 0.28407001 | 0.36693775 | 0.20977059 | 0.10093112 | 0.36698295 | 0.47024825 | 0.46362049 | 0.39295215 | 0.37219226 | 0.388601359 | 1 | 0.49953857 | 0.39010407 | 0.4147492 | 0.37999075 | 0.32301672 | 0.397992396 | 0.39530379 | 0.47972136 | 0.37509965 | 0.31211286 | 0.31073963 | 0.34256087 | 0.46003652 | 0.47045363 | 0.39784013 | 0.31895202 | 0.43042803 | 0.24528196 |
| O39.SI | -0.017450407 | 0.38562593 | 0.4289631 | 0.26932947 | 0.08891431 | 0.45752734 | 0.72835147 | 0.5994581 | 0.51424073 | 0.29573806 | 0.466517443 | 0.49953857 | 1 | 0.51644195 | 0.5555458 | 0.45753488 | 0.36930716 | 0.449979026 | 0.53625647 | 0.73723373 | 0.43271316 | 0.23977154 | 0.41478762 | 0.41837654 | 0.61554086 | 0.60466304 | 0.4509628 | 0.34313138 | 0.54606635 | 0.25593512 |
| Z74.SI | 0.01350265 | 0.28011956 | 0.29238151 | 0.15689313 | 0.08087801 | 0.296025693 | 0.48608922 | 0.41034301 | 0.42017698 | 0.17147439 | 0.391633568 | 0.39010407 | 0.51644195 | 1 | 0.39670609 | 0.34753836 | 0.2342488 | 0.408498882 | 0.37437458 | 0.48016237 | 0.33900772 | 0.13996073 | 0.31663354 | 0.36407193 | 0.40480005 | 0.40296097 | 0.34203842 | 0.29364786 | 0.39279021 | 0.27307262 |
| U96.SI | -0.018737407 | 0.37624669 | 0.40775923 | 0.21752777 | 0.05196155 | 0.440255507 | 0.5340714 | 0.69070048 | 0.41501125 | 0.29458861 | 0.40452021 | 0.4147492 | 0.5555458 | 0.39670609 | 1 | 0.39106173 | 0.3324796 | 0.339221666 | 0.41455912 | 0.5477585 | 0.44026466 | 0.26556809 | 0.37526593 | 0.32937134 | 0.50096289 | 0.52259791 | 0.37455918 | 0.31229395 | 0.4605627 | 0.23054038 |
| A17U.SI | -0.078882641 | 0.23206764 | 0.34142641 | 0.19612476 | 0.06217726 | 0.279382183 | 0.42972647 | 0.41683628 | 0.36033821 | 0.25112644 | 0.291314536 | 0.37999075 | 0.45753488 | 0.34753836 | 0.39106173 | 1 | 0.29121803 | 0.33286798 | 0.38369278 | 0.42954732 | 0.32730431 | 0.21065654 | 0.26825193 | 0.30966994 | 0.43852925 | 0.48568479 | 0.53005783 | 0.39737168 | 0.40434492 | 0.20958946 |
| H78.SI | 0.025617924 | 0.28769031 | 0.28313224 | 0.19539789 | 0.08520861 | 0.302992754 | 0.3649143 | 0.35455357 | 0.28348861 | 0.26973546 | 0.281574842 | 0.32301672 | 0.36930716 | 0.2342488 | 0.3324796 | 0.29121803 | 1 | 0.203622806 | 0.36632011 | 0.36066106 | 0.3066901 | 0.23771698 | 0.27643366 | 0.24498102 | 0.36459753 | 0.35997059 | 0.32469149 | 0.27110137 | 0.36181661 | 0.18855114 |
| C52.SI | 0.001747832 | 0.22056123 | 0.25945326 | 0.19589153 | 0.1079189 | 0.276739788 | 0.38689866 | 0.35730854 | 0.36276703 | 0.1842309 | 0.413562306 | 0.3979924 | 0.44997903 | 0.40849888 | 0.33922167 | 0.33286798 | 0.20362281 | 1 | 0.34257523 | 0.37824142 | 0.293783 | 0.15368549 | 0.302259 | 0.36128128 | 0.3426566 | 0.39085182 | 0.33703254 | 0.25433843 | 0.40350562 | 0.22582496 |
| C31.SI | -0.014396668 | 0.38513376 | 0.37599665 | 0.23277465 | 0.04845807 | 0.388684458 | 0.51746853 | 0.47605935 | 0.4137702 | 0.23725225 | 0.385883154 | 0.39530379 | 0.53625647 | 0.37437458 | 0.41455912 | 0.38369278 | 0.36632011 | 0.34257523 | 1 | 0.5211475 | 0.38618567 | 0.20228122 | 0.3562233 | 0.29298621 | 0.58705991 | 0.53604946 | 0.38237881 | 0.31510313 | 0.45077393 | 0.205515 |
| D05.SI | -0.023954405 | 0.40098622 | 0.41057872 | 0.2596309 | 0.07637871 | 0.457223839 | 0.73183903 | 0.59590919 | 0.50311068 | 0.29787573 | 0.438439589 | 0.47972136 | 0.73723373 | 0.48016237 | 0.5477585 | 0.42954732 | 0.36066106 | 0.378241423 | 0.5211475 | 1 | 0.39739437 | 0.23786912 | 0.40933593 | 0.39673301 | 0.61388816 | 0.62066199 | 0.44063076 | 0.34557316 | 0.50967527 | 0.2156383 |
| F34.SI | 0.028706065 | 0.25809527 | 0.42843307 | 0.25771458 | 0.04328505 | 0.347825682 | 0.4143472 | 0.49064251 | 0.35646697 | 0.27328861 | 0.320286583 | 0.37509965 | 0.43271316 | 0.33900772 | 0.44026466 | 0.32730431 | 0.3066901 | 0.293783001 | 0.38618567 | 0.39739437 | 1 | 0.20946408 | 0.30525402 | 0.27424416 | 0.41861795 | 0.41510952 | 0.29219089 | 0.24830059 | 0.40149553 | 0.21781919 |
| J36.SI | 0.033538775 | 0.1834527 | 0.21457463 | 0.14403482 | 0.05911279 | 0.19111988 | 0.21664361 | 0.28494713 | 0.18469909 | 0.6036294 | 0.18559713 | 0.31211286 | 0.23977154 | 0.13996073 | 0.26556809 | 0.21065654 | 0.23771698 | 0.153685486 | 0.20228122 | 0.23786912 | 0.20946408 | 1 | 0.14050191 | 0.1564825 | 0.25667792 | 0.25740401 | 0.26353463 | 0.14262071 | 0.24719128 | 0.14193981 |
| G13.SI | -0.019902636 | 0.31098893 | 0.36905984 | 0.20691614 | 0.06702228 | 0.398148306 | 0.39372695 | 0.42091553 | 0.33062188 | 0.18902306 | 0.295543084 | 0.31073963 | 0.41478762 | 0.31663354 | 0.37526593 | 0.26825193 | 0.27643366 | 0.302259003 | 0.3562233 | 0.40933593 | 0.30525402 | 0.14050191 | 1 | 0.2698137 | 0.35274883 | 0.3921239 | 0.27543379 | 0.23583255 | 0.33450401 | 0.18092212 |
| T39.SI | -0.021031479 | 0.25905568 | 0.26144486 | 0.20811046 | 0.07761691 | 0.2886306 | 0.38985211 | 0.36954329 | 0.35288161 | 0.15386893 | 0.344052167 | 0.34256087 | 0.41837654 | 0.36407193 | 0.32937134 | 0.30966994 | 0.24498102 | 0.361281281 | 0.29298621 | 0.39673301 | 0.27424416 | 0.1564825 | 0.2698137 | 1 | 0.33715091 | 0.34661404 | 0.27482035 | 0.23712395 | 0.36217452 | 0.21899931 |
| C09.SI | -0.039808854 | 0.33281166 | 0.37502287 | 0.23903856 | 0.05065339 | 0.426228744 | 0.58237862 | 0.54365724 | 0.48955387 | 0.28765028 | 0.419805595 | 0.46003652 | 0.61554086 | 0.40480005 | 0.50096289 | 0.43852925 | 0.36459753 | 0.342656602 | 0.58705991 | 0.61388816 | 0.41861795 | 0.25667792 | 0.35274883 | 0.33715091 | 1 | 0.58960239 | 0.40318022 | 0.33824096 | 0.51984723 | 0.2333011 |
| S68.SI | -0.025850939 | 0.36322738 | 0.43454705 | 0.24499734 | 0.07917218 | 0.485289194 | 0.5953527 | 0.56360353 | 0.47666378 | 0.28343214 | 0.411909987 | 0.47045363 | 0.60466304 | 0.40296097 | 0.52259791 | 0.48568479 | 0.35997059 | 0.39085182 | 0.53604946 | 0.62066199 | 0.41510952 | 0.25740401 | 0.3921239 | 0.34661404 | 0.58960239 | 1 | 0.44429777 | 0.33146185 | 0.51669295 | 0.23237872 |
| C38U.SI | -0.068849041 | 0.27043672 | 0.29909444 | 0.17341389 | 0.06962906 | 0.261834879 | 0.43132723 | 0.40683629 | 0.3618681 | 0.28447106 | 0.302149221 | 0.39784013 | 0.4509628 | 0.34203842 | 0.37455918 | 0.53005783 | 0.32469149 | 0.337032542 | 0.38237881 | 0.44063076 | 0.29219089 | 0.26353463 | 0.27543379 | 0.27482035 | 0.40318022 | 0.44429777 | 1 | 0.41171456 | 0.4141073 | 0.21930346 |
| C61U.SI | -0.034574915 | 0.30283243 | 0.24476941 | 0.17039896 | 0.07473872 | 0.230730459 | 0.32108939 | 0.31047079 | 0.26820728 | 0.19547268 | 0.284159104 | 0.31895202 | 0.34313138 | 0.29364786 | 0.31229395 | 0.39737168 | 0.27110137 | 0.254338434 | 0.31510313 | 0.34557316 | 0.24830059 | 0.14262071 | 0.23583255 | 0.23712395 | 0.33824096 | 0.33146185 | 0.41171456 | 1 | 0.32118146 | 0.17985194 |
| U14.SI | -0.01365725 | 0.3261733 | 0.35168081 | 0.25570784 | 0.10227041 | 0.408958752 | 0.52803248 | 0.47130496 | 0.42431783 | 0.27837935 | 0.411469833 | 0.43042803 | 0.54606635 | 0.39279021 | 0.4605627 | 0.40434492 | 0.36181661 | 0.403505616 | 0.45077393 | 0.50967527 | 0.40149553 | 0.24719128 | 0.33450401 | 0.36217452 | 0.51984723 | 0.51669295 | 0.4141073 | 0.32118146 | 1 | 0.22371018 |
| CC3.SI | 0.03049565 | 0.15030383 | 0.15619732 | 0.07791024 | 0.02102888 | 0.198558174 | 0.22556079 | 0.26631419 | 0.20026937 | 0.18909735 | 0.23840084 | 0.24528196 | 0.25593512 | 0.27307262 | 0.23054038 | 0.20958946 | 0.18855114 | 0.225824962 | 0.205515 | 0.2156383 | 0.21781919 | 0.14193981 | 0.18092212 | 0.21899931 | 0.2333011 | 0.23237872 | 0.21930346 | 0.17985194 | 0.22371018 | 1 |